CBA Forecast: Gross Domestic Product

2.0 % year-over-year
2026 Forecast
2.3 % year-over-year
2027 Forecast

Commentary by the Czech Bar Association

August ČBA Forecast: Following 2.7% growth in 2025, the Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.0% this year and accelerate to 2.3% in 2027. The overall growth rate remains virtually unchanged from May, but the composition is more favorable: consumption, investment, and exports are supported by stronger wages and lending activity, while higher import intensity dampens the impact on GDP.n Risks to the forecast: Risks include weaker European demand and high import intensity, while investment, lending activity, and a decline in the savings rate could support growth; for 2027, half of the forecasts range between 2.2% and 2.6%.
Risk update based on new data: Weaker growth in household consumption and subdued business investment in production capacity in the second quarter, combined with higher market interest rates, pose a risk to our outlook.

CBA Forecast: Gross Domestic Product

(year-over-year figures, % yoy)

CBA Monitor
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Source of Primary Data

Czech Statistical Office, Czech Banking Association

Category

Forecast

Data Frequency

annual

Note

"Actual values" and "ČBA forecast" represent the full-year average, and "actual YTD data" is the year-to-date average for the current year.
Data adjusted for the impact of varying numbers of business days and seasonal factors.
The "mid-range of 25–75% of forecasts," marked by dashes, represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentiles of all forecasts in the ČBA consensus.

Related Charts

Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product Trends
Post-COVID Recovery of Economic Activity

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Comments

19. 08. 2026

August 2026: The Czech economy continues to grow steadily, but core inflation pressures will keep interest rates higher

The economy slowed in the first quarter, but its structure remains encouraging
Jaromír Šindel 29. 05. 2026

The Czech economy grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1. The weaker result was mainly due to technical factors, including the negative contribution of net exports and the budget provisionality. However, the structure of growth remains favourable thanks to continued growth in household consumption, investment and exports. In addition to the Iran war, weaker industry and persistent wage inflation pressures with slower productivity growth pose risks to the recovery to 2% economic growth this year.

25. 05. 2026

The domestic economy will grow by 2% this year. The CBA forecasting panel worsened the outlook due to the events in Hormuz. The forecast from the first quarter predicted growth of 2.6%. Consumer inflation should accelerate towards the upper limit of the inflation target at the end of this year.

20. 05. 2026

May 2026: Economic growth slowing to 2% with risks on many fronts, 2.4% growth next year

The Czech economy slowed in Q1. Household purchasing power remains hopeful
Jaromír Šindel 05. 05. 2026

GDP growth slowed to below 0.2 percent in the first quarter, a negative surprise. Instead of the expected household consumption, the economy was mainly driven by investment, while foreign trade worked against growth. However, the weaker consumption may be only a temporary correction after the strong end of last year. The same applies to industrial production, and the government's temporary budget provision also had a negative impact on the first quarter. The outlook will be significantly affected by the intensification of the commodity supply crisis due to the Iranian conflict.

Pavel Sobíšek 17. 02. 2026

The CBA's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.6% this year and to maintain the same pace in 2027. Inflation should slow to 1.7% this year and then accelerate to 2.3% next year. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jan Vejmělek 12. 02. 2026

The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.6% this year and should maintain the same pace next year, according to the CBA forecasting panel. Inflation should slow to 1.7% on average in 2026 and accelerate slightly again to 2.3% in 2027. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jaromír Šindel 11. 02. 2026

February 2026: Growth outlook steady at 2.6% with low price growth