CBA Commentary
May CBA Forecast:The CBA forecast now expects slower real GDP growth this year, at 2.0% yoy, after accelerating to 2.6% in 2025.For 2027, the panellists are looking for a return to stronger economic growth at 2.4%. Compared to the February forecast, the panel lowered its estimate of GDP growth by 0.6 percentage point this year and further by 0.2 p.p. for next year. The outlook reflects a $25 higher oil price this year, weaker growth in the eurozone economy and increased uncertainty in the global economy related to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and commodity markets, which pose risks to investment activity. This translates into weaker growth in export activity in our forecast, as well as a likely temporary decline in inventories, which may in turn support the economy once the shock wears off. Despite the negative impact of higher inflation on real wages, which will still maintain a solid 3.5% pace this year, higher inflation will not fully feed through to domestic demand.
Risk to the forecast: GDP growth of 2.2% yoy so far in 2026 (with Q1 data) is above the CBA forecast. However, the forecast assumes slower quarter-on-quarter economic growth than last year.
CBA forecast: gross domestic product
(annual values, % yoy)
Source of primary data
CZSO, CBACategory
ForecastData frequency
annualNote
"Actual" and "CBA forecast" represent the full-year average and "actual ytd" is the average for the year to date.Data adjusted for working day differences and seasonal effects.
The dashed line "middle band of 25-75% forecasts" represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentile of all forecasts in the CBA consensus.
