Post-Covid revival of economic activity

retail without cars

Post-Covid revival of economic activity

(3mma index against January-February 2020)
CBA Commentary
Industrial production rose by 1.7% m/m in February on a seasonally adjusted basis. This resulted in stronger growth of 0.5% y/y, below the annualized growth of 13% (which would be the future twelve-month annual growth if the month-on-month momentum of the last three months is maintained). Construction output then fell by 0.6% m/m. Because of this, we see it growing at a stronger 6.8% y/y, below the annualized growth of 14.4%.Retail sales excluding autos were up 0.4% m/m in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, while sales in the core segment (excluding food, fuel and autos) were up 0.5% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis. This resulted in a more modest 2.7% y-o-y growth in retail sales, below the annualized growth of 5.3%. Year-over-year growth in core sales moderated to 3%, below annualized growth of 3.7%.Services sales (both consumer and business) fell 0% m-o-m in February on a seasonally adjusted basis. As a result, we observe them growing at a more moderate 1.8% y/y, which is below the annualized growth of 7.8%.
This available data shows a level of industrial production 0.7% above the January-February 2020 pre-forecast level. Other sectors show the following differences to the pre-forecast period: -0.4 for retail sales excluding autos (3.8% for its core segment), 6.7% for services sales and 0% for construction production.
Source of primary data
CZSO
Note
The index is in the form of a 3-month average. Data are in constant prices, adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects. Core retail trade corresponds to "retail trade for non-food goods", i.e. retail trade excluding cars, food and fuel.
Category
Economics
Data frequency
Monthly
Comments
Industry above expectations in August due to the impact of the holidays, stagnated during the summer
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Industry slightly down year-on-year in April
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Industry fell in November
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Industry fell by 2.7% yoy in March
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Cars have cooled the industry and worse sentiment ahead
Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA