Post-Covid recovery of economic activity

retail without cars

Post-Covid recovery of economic activity

(3mma index against January-February 2020)
CBA Commentary
Industrial production fell by 1.6% m/m in May on a seasonally adjusted basis. This resulted in a more moderate 1.4% yoy growth, above the annualized decline of 1.1% (which would be the future twelve-month yoy growth if the month-on-month momentum of the last three months is maintained). Construction output then fell by 5% yoy. Because of this, we observe a more modest 6% y/y growth, above the annualized 6.4% decline.Retail sales excluding autos declined by 0.2% m/m in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, while sales in the core segment (excluding food, fuel and autos) rose by 0.7% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis. This resulted in a more modest 4.9% y/y growth in retail sales, below the annualized growth of 8%. Year-over-year growth in core sales moderated to 5.8%, below annualized growth of 12.7%.Services sales (both consumer and business) rose 0.1% m-o-m in May on a seasonally adjusted basis. As a result, we are seeing stronger year-on-year growth of 3%, above the annualized growth of 1.1%. \The latest available data show industrial production levels 0.6% above the January-February 2020 pre-Covada level. Other sectors show the following differences to the pre-Covada period: 1.8% for retail sales excluding autos (7.2% for its core segment), 7.2% for service sales and -1.6% for construction production.
Source of primary data
CZSO
Note
The index is in the form of a 3-month average. Data are in constant prices, adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects. Core retail trade corresponds to "retail trade for non-food goods", i.e. retail trade excluding cars, food and fuel.
Category
Economics
Data frequency
Monthly
Comments
Industry above expectations in August due to the impact of the holidays, stagnated during the summer
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Industry slightly down year-on-year in April
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Three highlights in the weaker GDP growth of half a percent
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Worse April sentiment does not bring immediate relief for the CNB
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Stronger GDP growth in Q1 does not bring a disinflationary break
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Strong March economic data spoils weaker industrial payrolls and gives way to surprising growth structure
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA