Post-Covid recovery of economic activity

retail without cars

Post-Covid recovery of economic activity

(3mma index against January-February 2020)
CBA Commentary
Industrial production fell by 1.1% m/m in August on a seasonally adjusted basis. This resulted in a stronger decline of 0.7% yoy, above the annualized decline of 6.5% over the past three months (which would be the future twelve-month yoy growth if the monthly momentum of the past three months were maintained). Construction output then rose by 2.3% yoy. As a result, we observe its stronger y/y growth of 20.2%, below the annualized growth of 30.7%.Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.6% m/m in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, while sales in the core segment (excluding food, fuel and autos) rose 0.7% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis. This resulted in stronger retail sales growth of 3.7% y/y, above the annualized growth of 2.6%. Year-over-year core sales growth strengthened to 4.2%, above annualized growth of 2.7%.Services sales (both consumer and business) rose 0.2% m-o-m in August on a seasonally adjusted basis. As a result, we observe stronger year-on-year growth of 1.8%, above the annualized decline of 2.1%. \The latest available data show industrial production 1% below the January-February 2020 pre-Covada level. Other sectors show the following differences to the pre-Covada period: 1.6% for retail sales excluding autos (7.2% for its core segment), 6.1% for services sales and 10.5% for construction production.
Source of primary data
CZSO
Note
The index is in the form of a 3-month average. Data are in constant prices, adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects. Core retail trade corresponds to "retail trade for non-food goods", i.e. retail trade excluding cars, food and fuel.
Category
Economics
Data frequency
Monthly
Comments
The economy delivered another surprise with productivity growth picking up in Q3.
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The return to stronger economic growth of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 was a surprise, confirming the indications of stronger confidence in September. At the same time, stagnant employment added a welcome return to stronger productivity, which may partially dampen the hawkish impulse of stronger GDP for the CNB. The CNB will most likely leave interest rates unchanged at 3.5%, not only at the November meeting, but GDP details may set a more distinct tone to its communication later in November.
October industrial sentiment awakening with hawkish price signals
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Stronger sentiment in October suggests a return to stronger GDP growth for the end of this year after a probably slightly worse result in Q3. Higher price expectations may delay the return of core inflation to the target.
August retail and construction sectors kept the economy growing
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The continuation of the construction boom and the recovery in retail sales in August was dampened by the return of weaker industrial production, despite stronger exports. However, the positive sentiment in September suggests that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q3 may not be as pronounced as the July and August figures suggest.
September sentiment pleasantly surprised
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist at the CBA: September sentiment brings a boost after weaker monthly data in July and thus better prospects for GDP growth - mainly thanks to retail trade and construction.
Weak July industrial and services recovery hinders continuation of solid GDP growth
Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Although the economy breathed a half-percent growth in the second quarter, the July figures were rather disappointing and suggest a cooling. However, the Czech economy is generating upside risks to inflation, which limits the room for manoeuvre of the CNB, which is likely to stick to the CNB's 3.5% terminal interest rate thesis. August's registered unemployment confirmed a worse trend, which, however, is not confirmed by other data.
Retail and services sales slowed in June, but sentiment remains positive
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA