Post-Covid recovery of economic activity

retail without cars

Post-Covid recovery of economic activity

(3mma index against January-February 2020)
CBA Commentary
Industrial production rose by 0.8% m/m in July on a seasonally adjusted basis. This resulted in a more modest 0.1% yoy growth, above the annualized 6.4% decline of the last three months (which would be the future twelve-month yoy growth if the monthly momentum of the last three months were maintained). Construction output then rose by 1% m/m. As a result, we observe stronger year-on-year growth of 11.3%, below the annualized growth rate of 27%.Retail sales excluding autos fell by 0.3% m-o-m on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, while sales in the core segment (excluding food, fuel and autos) fell by 0.4% m-o-m on a seasonally adjusted basis. This resulted in a more modest 3% y/y growth in retail sales, above the annualized decline of 1.8%. Year-over-year growth in core sales moderated to 3.9%, above the annualized growth of 1.8%.Services sales (both consumer and business) fell 0.1% m-o-m in July on a seasonally adjusted basis. Because of this, we see them growing at a stronger annualised rate of 1.7%, above the annualized decline of 1.7%.
This available data shows a level of industrial production 0.3% above the January-February 2020 pre-forecast level. Other sectors show the following differences to the pre-forecast period: 1.1% for retail sales excluding autos (6.6% for its core segment), 6.3% for services sales and 7% for construction production.
Source of primary data
CZSO
Note
The index is in the form of a 3-month average. Data are in constant prices, adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects. Core retail trade corresponds to "retail trade for non-food goods", i.e. retail trade excluding cars, food and fuel.
Category
Economics
Data frequency
Monthly
Comments
Weak July industrial and services recovery hinders continuation of solid GDP growth
Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Although the economy breathed a half-percent growth in the second quarter, the July figures were rather disappointing and suggest a cooling. However, the Czech economy is generating upside risks to inflation, which limits the room for manoeuvre of the CNB, which is likely to stick to the CNB's 3.5% terminal interest rate thesis. August's registered unemployment confirmed a worse trend, which, however, is not confirmed by other data.
Retail and services sales slowed in June, but sentiment remains positive
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Slower GDP growth in Q2 likely due to weaker June
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
July sentiment brings slightly worse signal for the economy and the CNB
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Highest unemployment in eight years does not dampen hawkish core inflation due to solid economic growth
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA