Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The November data confirm an acceleration in industrial activity, driven by the automotive industry and the recovery of energy-intensive sectors, which pushed annual industrial growth closer to 6%, the highest this year. However, further improvement may be hampered by the December decline in industrial sentiment and export expectations. Construction remains weak, and its high 7% y/y growth reflects the past rather than the current reality of limited public investment and weak building permits issued. The labour market has not yet cooled significantly despite a higher 3.3% selection unemployment rate, confirming continued solid wage growth of around 6% in industry. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth will thus be underpinned by industrial production in Q4, probably also retail, but construction and the foreign trade surplus will rather take a bite out of it.

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The continuation of the construction boom and the recovery in retail sales in August was dampened by the return of weaker industrial production, despite stronger exports. However, the positive sentiment in September suggests that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q3 may not be as pronounced as the July and August figures suggest.

Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Although the economy breathed a half-percent growth in the second quarter, the July figures were rather disappointing and suggest a cooling. However, the Czech economy is generating upside risks to inflation, which limits the room for manoeuvre of the CNB, which is likely to stick to the CNB's 3.5% terminal interest rate thesis. August's registered unemployment confirmed a worse trend, which, however, is not confirmed by other data.