Industrial Production

Although confidence in the Czech economy improved only slightly in July, it did so for the second month in a row, confirming its resilience despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Positive signals are coming mainly from the industrial sector, where assessments of demand and capacity utilization are improving, as well as from employment expectations. At the same time, declining price expectations are easing the CNB’s concerns about persistent inflationary pressures; however, the return of higher oil prices does not yet give the central bank a reason to deviate from its rather hawkish communication.

April's monthly figures open the way for stronger GDP growth in Q2 for now, after slowing to 0.2% q-o-q in Q1. The April industrial numbers are 1.8% above the first quarter average thanks to the April rebound. Despite a slight April decline, the construction sector is on an uptrend, thanks in part to strong housing starts, which rebounded from weaker building permits. Moreover, its sentiment does not suggest a change in trend. Foreign trade reached its lowest surplus below CZK4bn since the end of the energy crisis in 2022. However, this mainly reflects higher non-energy imports, while export activity also showed solid growth thanks to ICT. Thus, net exports are unlikely to drive GDP, similar to the first quarter when their weaker contribution was offset by stronger investment activity.

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: December data brought a positive end to the year with continued better-than-expected industrial production, including its structure. The same is true for construction output, which returned to a better performance, but the weaker number of building permits remains a drag. Foreign trade posted an improved surplus of over 25 billion kronor in December and nearly 220 billion kronor for the full year 2025. This is equivalent to 2.6% of GDP, down from 2.8% a year ago. While retail trade did not impress at the end of the year, this was not the case for industrial wages, which returned to double-digit annualized growth at the end of the year. Overall, the December data should not prompt more dovish rhetoric from the CNB, as it does not yet signal a disinflationary contribution from the real economy towards core inflation. However, in its new, stronger outlook, the CNB is also assuming an improvement in labour productivity, which, together with tighter monetary conditions, will bring inflation back towards its target.

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The November data confirm an acceleration in industrial activity, driven by the automotive industry and the recovery of energy-intensive sectors, which pushed annual industrial growth closer to 6%, the highest this year. However, further improvement may be hampered by the December decline in industrial sentiment and export expectations. Construction remains weak, and its high 7% y/y growth reflects the past rather than the current reality of limited public investment and weak building permits issued. The labour market has not yet cooled significantly despite a higher 3.3% selection unemployment rate, confirming continued solid wage growth of around 6% in industry. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth will thus be underpinned by industrial production in Q4, probably also retail, but construction and the foreign trade surplus will rather take a bite out of it.

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The continuation of the construction boom and the recovery in retail sales in August was dampened by the return of weaker industrial production, despite stronger exports. However, the positive sentiment in September suggests that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q3 may not be as pronounced as the July and August figures suggest.

Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Although the economy breathed a half-percent growth in the second quarter, the July figures were rather disappointing and suggest a cooling. However, the Czech economy is generating upside risks to inflation, which limits the room for manoeuvre of the CNB, which is likely to stick to the CNB's 3.5% terminal interest rate thesis. August's registered unemployment confirmed a worse trend, which, however, is not confirmed by other data.

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA