Gross domestic product

Average GDP in 2024

Gross domestic product

(annual values, % yoy)
CBA Commentary
GDP growth of 2.6% y/y in 2025 is above its long-term average (since 1993) of 2.3%. The level of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 5.3% above its pre-pandemic level in the last quarter of 2019. Household consumption grew at a 3% annual rate during 2025, outperforming/underperforming the previous long-term average (since 1997) growth of 1.9%. Pre-pandemic five-year average growth was 3.6% and post-pandemic average growth (i.e., after 2021) has been 0% so far.
Source of primary data
CSO
Note
Full-year values,
data adjusted for the effect of different number of working days and seasonal effects.
Category
Economics
Data frequency
annual
Comments
Consumption, wages and industry dragged GDP growth, but do not favour a fall in interest rates
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the Czech Bank of Economics: The Czech economy closed last year with stronger growth than originally expected. The Czech economy could repeat its 2.6% annual growth this year. Household consumption was the driving force at the end of last year, supported by stronger wage growth, but also by strong growth in manufacturing. However, higher wage costs have far outpaced productivity growth, and so still elevated core inflation will remain the central bank's focus, which should result in the CNB interest rate holding steady at 3.5%.
Slight economic slowdown in late 2025 and this year is poised to repeat last year's 2.5% growth
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Economic growth slowed down at the end of last year, but still achieved solid 0.5% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth.The structure of growth has not changed significantly - consumption is dominant, which is probably not true of investment. This is in line with the latest sentiment data. A more positive sign is improving productivity. The outlook for this year is a repeat of last year's 2.5% growth, thanks to a better outlook for real wage growth and a change in fiscal policy. Conversely, weaker external demand, even given industrial sentiment, is likely to be a drag on stronger economic growth.
Strong GDP growth masks a key problem, namely continued weak investment and falling productivity while wage growth remains strong
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The stronger quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 0.8% in Q3 mainly reflected foreign trade, while the contribution of domestic demand was not as strong as in the previous quarter. Moreover, there has been a continuous decline in fixed investment excluding construction investment, undermining the future potential of the economy and keeping productivity growth low and fuelling inflationary growth in unit labour costs (see five key points below).
The economy delivered another surprise with productivity growth picking up in Q3.
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The return to stronger economic growth of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 was a surprise, confirming the indications of stronger confidence in September. At the same time, stagnant employment added a welcome return to stronger productivity, which may partially dampen the hawkish impulse of stronger GDP for the CNB. The CNB will most likely leave interest rates unchanged at 3.5%, not only at the November meeting, but GDP details may set a more distinct tone to its communication later in November.
September CNB interest rate decision: hawkish calm before the storm?
Commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Higher-than-expected wage growth will be the main, but not the only, reason for keeping the interest rate at 3.5% at the CNB's September meeting and for the intensification of the hawkish tone in the communication. The latter may indeed indicate a further upward movement in the interest rate, but rather in an unspecified distant horizon. A stronger koruna or tighter monetary policy through the longer end of the yield curve is unlikely to lead the CNB to a dovish mindset.
Weak July industrial and services recovery hinders continuation of solid GDP growth
Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Although the economy breathed a half-percent growth in the second quarter, the July figures were rather disappointing and suggest a cooling. However, the Czech economy is generating upside risks to inflation, which limits the room for manoeuvre of the CNB, which is likely to stick to the CNB's 3.5% terminal interest rate thesis. August's registered unemployment confirmed a worse trend, which, however, is not confirmed by other data.