Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Retail and services sales disappointed in September despite solid wage growth, which was confirmed by September industrial wages. A gradual but steady rise in unemployment is likely to be in evidence here. Thus, the stronger GDP growth in Q3 was helped by September's industrial production, which complemented the strong construction output of the previous months. Given sentiment, things might not be different in October.
Actualities
News, special events, current topics. Don't miss the CBA Monitor online news. The latest articles from the world of economics and its development from the Czech Banking Association clearly and in one place.
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The CNB is waiting for a new impulse. The CNB is waiting for the new government to announce its plans, both from the data and from future analysis of the new government's upcoming plans. The CNB's own outlook, with more moderate consumer price growth at the end of the year and a stronger economy in real terms in Q3, opens up the possibility of more hawkish communication in the rest of the year. But I believe the CNB will wait to reassess its communication until the contours of the new government's policy are clearer.
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The return of consumer price inflation to 2.5% in October will keep the CNB vigilant. Although this was due to higher food prices, the current core inflation rate remains slightly above the inflation target, which will probably be evident next spring. Although selected plans of the new coalition will help to further tame price rises, others are more likely to maintain an inflationary undercurrent in the economy.
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The stronger koruna, lower inflation, and the return of productivity growth give the central bank some relief, allowing it to monitor how wages and the post-election fiscal plans—often pulling in opposite directions—will play out.
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The return to stronger economic growth of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 was a surprise, confirming the indications of stronger confidence in September. At the same time, stagnant employment added a welcome return to stronger productivity, which may partially dampen the hawkish impulse of stronger GDP for the CNB. The CNB will most likely leave interest rates unchanged at 3.5%, not only at the November meeting, but GDP details may set a more distinct tone to its communication later in November.
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Stronger sentiment in October suggests a return to stronger GDP growth for the end of this year after a probably slightly worse result in Q3. Higher price expectations may delay the return of core inflation to the target.
The volume of new mortgages has reached CZK 235 billion since the beginning of the year
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Lower food prices, a seasonal decline in holiday prices and a slight catch-up in education prices contributed to September's more moderate consumer price growth of 2.3%, which, however, reminds us of possible price catch-up in other segments next year as well (see Chart 4).
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The continuation of the construction boom and the recovery in retail sales in August was dampened by the return of weaker industrial production, despite stronger exports. However, the positive sentiment in September suggests that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q3 may not be as pronounced as the July and August figures suggest.
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The more pronounced slowdown in September consumer price growth to 2.3% year on year reflects a decline in most components of the consumer basket. There are three messages for the CNB that are likely to leave the CNB's communication unchanged, i.e. open to all interest rate possibilities.
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The recovery in disposable income in Q2 was still dampened by fiscal policy, so it remained weaker compared to the increase in wages and property prices. Nevertheless, households managed to increase both consumption and their savings.
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist at the CBA: While the CNB unsurprisingly left interest rates unchanged with the two-week repo rate at 3.5%, the Board's statement on the monetary policy settings, however, was more surprising in its less hawkish tone, leaving open all possibilities for future monetary policy settings.
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist at the CBA: September sentiment brings a boost after weaker monthly data in July and thus better prospects for GDP growth - mainly thanks to retail trade and construction.
Commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Higher-than-expected wage growth will be the main, but not the only, reason for keeping the interest rate at 3.5% at the CNB's September meeting and for the intensification of the hawkish tone in the communication. The latter may indeed indicate a further upward movement in the interest rate, but rather in an unspecified distant horizon. A stronger koruna or tighter monetary policy through the longer end of the yield curve is unlikely to lead the CNB to a dovish mindset.
The rate fell slightly to 4.52%.
Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: I estimate overall growth in realised house prices of 4.2% quarter-on-quarter, which has outpaced wage growth for the sixth quarter in a row.
Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: CPI growth slowed to 2.5% yoy in August, but core inflation accelerated slightly to 2.8% in line with the CNB's forecast. The core services price segment, excluding imputed rent, accelerated month-on-month in August, but its three-month average remains well below the pace observed in H1-2025.
Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Although the economy breathed a half-percent growth in the second quarter, the July figures were rather disappointing and suggest a cooling. However, the Czech economy is generating upside risks to inflation, which limits the room for manoeuvre of the CNB, which is likely to stick to the CNB's 3.5% terminal interest rate thesis. August's registered unemployment confirmed a worse trend, which, however, is not confirmed by other data.
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
The Czech Banking Association's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.1% this year. The estimate is more optimistic than the May forecast, which predicted only 1.7% for this year. The improvement comes despite the higher 15% US tariffs, which are expected to remain in place in 2026.
The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.1% this year, while next year it should be a tenth less. The forecast is thus more optimistic than the May forecast, which only counted on 1.7% for this year. The improvement comes despite the higher 15% US tariffs, which are expected to remain in place in 2026.
August 2025: the CBA improved its outlook for the Czech economy. 2.1% growth confirms resilience and slightly higher inflation leads to a more cautious CNB
The rate fell slightly further to 4.53%.
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA (adjusted for published data on core inflation from the CNB and registered unemployment data, 18:00 8 August)
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
In June 2025, banks and building societies granted new mortgages worth CZK 29.4 billion.
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Average mortgage rate fell to 4.6%
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
The Czech Banking Association has downgraded its growth outlook for the domestic economy this year to 1.7%. The February macroeconomic forecast had expected growth of 2.1%. The negative impact of the trade wars and the uncertainty associated with them contributed significantly to the lower outlook. Next year, the growth rate should accelerate slightly to 2.0%.
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
The Czech economy will grow more slowly this year, by 1.7%. This is expected by the CBA macroeconomic forecast. The negative impact of trade wars and the uncertainty associated with them have significantly contributed to the worse outlook. Next year, the growth rate should accelerate slightly to 2.0%.
May 2025: the CBA has downgraded the outlook for the Czech economy. It will grow by 1.7% this year, 2% next year. Economists predict 12% US tariffs
Despite the slight correction, April continued to see strong volumes of new mortgages supported by another slight decline in the average mortgage rate to 4.65%.
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Significant slowdown in April consumer inflation to 1.8% yoy, but still strong core inflation growth
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
March continued to see strong new mortgage volumes supported by another slight fall in the average rate to 4.68%
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs, vol. II: Will Trump's reciprocal tariffs maths affect the EU's response?
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
The CNB Bank Board left interest rates unchanged in March.
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
February still suggests continued strong volumes of new mortgages, thanks to a further decline in the average rate to 4.72%.
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
House prices up 10.7%
The Czech economy will grow by 2.1% this year. According to the CBA's macroeconomic forecast. The outlook is significantly affected by the uncertainty of trade wars. In the baseline scenario, we expect consumer prices to grow by a similar annual rate of 2.4% this year as last year, with only a slight slowdown to 2.2% in 2026.
The domestic economy will grow by 2.1% this year, according to the CBA's macroeconomic forecast. The outlook is significantly affected by uncertainty about the onset of trade wars. In the baseline scenario, we expect consumer prices to grow by a similar annual rate of 2.4% this year as last year, with only a slight slowdown to 2.2% in 2026. The CNB's interest rates are likely to continue to fall gradually, with the two-week repo rate reaching 3.25% this year and 3% next year.
February 2025: the CBA worsened the economic outlook
Average mortgage rate fell to 4.78 per cent
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Average mortgage rate fell to 4.8 percent
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Average mortgage rate fell to 4.85 per cent
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
The domestic economy would grow by 1% year on year this year, similar to the value expected in the previous forecast. GDP is forecast to accelerate by 2.3% next year. Compared to the previous forecast, the estimate for 2025 has been revised downwards by almost half a percentage point, mainly due to weaker developments abroad.
Average mortgage rate fell to 4.9 per cent
The Czech economy will grow by 1% year-on-year this year, with GDP forecast to accelerate by 2.3% next year. Compared to the previous forecast, the estimate for 2025 has been revised downwards by almost half a percentage point, mainly due to weaker developments abroad.
November 2024: Domestic economic growth will be moderate this year, targets just above 2% next year, but slower than expected in the August forecast
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Average mortgage rate fell to 4.96 per cent
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Industry above expectations in August due to the impact of the holidays, stagnated during the summer
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
The average mortgage rate fell to 4.98 percent, the lowest in two years
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
The domestic economy will grow more slowly than expected this year. Annual growth will be 0.9%, down half a percentage point from the May forecast. The weaker development is linked to the unfavourable outlook for foreign demand.
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
The domestic economy will grow more slowly than expected this year. Annual growth will be 0.9%, down half a percentage point from the May forecast. The weaker development is linked to the unfavourable outlook for foreign demand. In the next episode, we will interview economist Jaromír Šindel.
The average rate increased slightly to 5.07 percent
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
August 2024: Growth of the domestic economy will be weaker this year, the optimistic expectations from the previous forecast have not been met
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Average interest rate fell to 5.06%
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
The average mortgage rate fell to 5.07% in May.
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
The average mortgage rate fell to 5.10%.
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
May 2024: This year's recovery will be gradual, growth should accelerate next year, inflation will remain at the central bank's 2% target this year and next
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Average mortgage rate fell to 5.19%
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Average mortgage rate fell to 5.36% in February
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Sales of older and new homes increased by tens of percent during 2023
February 2024: The domestic economy will recover slowly this year. Growth expected to be only 1.2%, inflation close to central bank's target
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Interest in mortgages almost doubled year-on-year in January.
Interview with Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the Czech Banking Association
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Interview with Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Interview with Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Interview with Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Mortgage market continues to revive, interest rate fell to 5.65% in December
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
CBA Hypomonitor: Mortgage market held at October level in November, interest rate fell to 5.67 %