CBA Monitor is an interactive and quick overview of information on the development of the economy and the banking sector in the Czech Republic, accompanied by comments from CBA experts.
The Czech Banking Association has downgraded its growth outlook for the domestic economy this year to 1.7%. The February macroeconomic forecast had expected growth of 2.1%. The negative impact of the trade wars and the uncertainty associated with them contributed significantly to the lower outlook. Next year, the growth rate should accelerate slightly to 2.0%.
The Czech economy will grow more slowly this year, by 1.7%. This is expected by the CBA macroeconomic forecast. The negative impact of trade wars and the uncertainty associated with them have significantly contributed to the worse outlook. Next year, the growth rate should accelerate slightly to 2.0%.
The CBA forecast is produced each quarter as a consensus forecast of selected domestic banks. A basic summary of the current CBA forecast in several figures and comments is outlined below, detailed information can be found in the
„CBA Forecast“ section.
GDP
0% yoy
year 2025 | 2026
The domestic economy is expected to accelerate to 1.7% this year and further to 2% yoy growth next year after 1% growth last year.
Unemployment
0%
year 2025 | 2026
We expect unemployment to rise slightly to 4.2% this year from 3.8% in 2024, with the expectation that it will stabilise at 4.1% next year.
Average wages
0%
year 2025 | 2026
Average wage growth is expected to slow slightly to 5.9% from 7.1% last year and further to 4.9% next year.
Inflation
0% yoy
year 2025 | 2026
Consumer price growth of 2.3% year-on-year this year should almost repeat last year's performance of 2.4% and we also expect only a further slight slowdown next year.
CNB 2-week repo rate
0%
end of 2025
The CNB will continue with the gradual reduction of the repo rate to 3.25% this year and further to 3% in 2026, where risks are skewed in both directions.
The Crown
0CZK/€
end of 2025
The interest rate differential remained supportive of a modest appreciation of the koruna, but consumption-led growth, accompanied by weaker export activity and uncertainty over tariff wars, represented a significant obstacle.
Jaromír Šindel Chief Economist CBA
Jaromír Šindel is the Chief Economist of the Czech Banking Association, where he uses his extensive experience in the field of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. Prior to that, he worked for more than 17 years as the Chief Economist at Citibank. In 1999 - 2004, he received a master’s degree from the University of Economics Prague with a major in economic policy and continued to focus on this field during his doctoral studies, which he completed in 2011.
During his time at Citibank (2007-2024), he worked mainly on macroeconomic analysis with a focus on economic trends in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia. He prepared forecasts of economic developments and economic policy, including the impact on financial markets. Related to this, he also monitored global economic and political trends and their impact on the local economic situation.
