CBA Hypomonitor

This year is bringing a strong wave of expiring mortgage rate fixations, while the shorter fixation periods agreed in recent years will further increase these volumes in the years ahead. Building on the central bank’s latest estimate that mortgage fixations worth an average of CZK 534 billion per year will expire between 2026 and 2028, we present alternative interest-rate shock scenarios depending on the path of mortgage rates. In 2027–2028, the negative interest-rate shock is expected to ease to 0.1–0.6 percentage points, down from 1.1–1.4 percentage points this year. However, we also outline a more adverse scenario involving a stronger interest-rate shock. This year, the negative interest-rate shock affecting expiring mortgage fixations from the low-rate period will amount to roughly 3.5% of the average household income of mortgage applicants, although across all households the average impact will be about half that level. In both cases, the expected real growth in wages and salaries should be sufficient to offset the shock.

The average amount of a new mortgage exceeded CZK 4.8 million

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Mortgage rates are significantly determined by the movement of market interest rates. However, structural factors in the banking market are also important. The CNB's investigation of credit conditions in our analysis helps to explain what factors influence the difference between mortgage and market interest rates deviating from its normal level. The CBA analysis shows that a combination of stronger demand and competition among banks plays a key role. It is the latter that can lead to more favourable rates for clients without undermining market stability. The difference between mortgage rates and market rates that we have been monitoring is therefore mainly dampened by stronger demand, but in an environment of growing competition, which is key. Banks' profitability also plays a role, acting as a corrective mechanism to maintain competitive interest rate spreads but also market stability.

February ranked among the five strongest mortgage months ever in terms of volume in billions of crowns, but also with a continued strong number of new mortgage originations.

Average mortgage rate fell to 4.48%

Average mortgage rate rises to 4.49%

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: According to the Czech Statistical Office, realised prices of older flats in the Czech Republic rose by 3.7% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, which exceeds income growth for the seventh quarter already and maintains the too brisk annual pace of property prices at around 16%. Higher property prices are also making their way into the CNB's macroprudential capital policy settings, with discussion over the (arguably unscary) possible introduction of a sectoral systemic buffer, as well as less intuitive discussions over the role of investment activity by non-financial corporates in setting the countercyclical capital buffer.

Since the beginning of the year, their volume has reached CZK 293 billion, i.e. CZK 84 billion more than a year ago.

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The Central Bank, through stricter requirements in the form of recommendations for investment mortgages, has decided to make a modest effort to correct mortgage demand on the real estate market, which remains very tight in terms of prices, mainly due to the supply side - see the drop in building permits.

Since the beginning of the year, the volume of new mortgages has reached CZK 265 billion

The volume of new mortgages has reached CZK 235 billion since the beginning of the year

The rate fell slightly to 4.52%.

The rate fell slightly further to 4.53%.

In June 2025, banks and building societies granted new mortgages worth CZK 29.4 billion.

Average mortgage rate fell to 4.6%

Despite the slight correction, April continued to see strong volumes of new mortgages supported by another slight decline in the average mortgage rate to 4.65%.

March continued to see strong new mortgage volumes supported by another slight fall in the average rate to 4.68%

February still suggests continued strong volumes of new mortgages, thanks to a further decline in the average rate to 4.72%.

Average mortgage rate fell to 4.78 per cent

Average mortgage rate fell to 4.8 percent

Average mortgage rate fell to 4.85 per cent

Average mortgage rate fell to 4.9 per cent

Average mortgage rate fell to 4.96 per cent

The average mortgage rate fell to 4.98 percent, the lowest in two years

The average rate increased slightly to 5.07 percent

Average interest rate fell to 5.06%

The average mortgage rate fell to 5.07% in May.

The average mortgage rate fell to 5.10%.

Average mortgage rate fell to 5.19%

Average mortgage rate fell to 5.36% in February

Interest in mortgages almost doubled year-on-year in January.

Interview with Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the Czech Banking Association

Interview with Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the Czech Banking Association

Mortgage market continues to revive, interest rate fell to 5.65% in December

CBA Hypomonitor: Mortgage market held at October level in November, interest rate fell to 5.67 %