CBA Hypomonitor: Indian summer of strong mortgages at a stable rate of 4.52%
The volume of new mortgages has reached CZK 235 billion since the beginning of the year
Prague, 14 October 2025 - In September 2025, banks and building societies granted new mortgages worth CZK 29.6 billion. Compared to August, the volume of activity increased by 14%, which is confirmed by seasonally adjusted figures with an estimated volume of new mortgages of over CZK 31 billion and more than 7.2 thousand units. Since the beginning of the year, the volume of new mortgages has thus reached CZK 235 billion, i.e. CZK 70 billion more than a year ago. Rising market interest rates have kept the average mortgage rate realised at 4.52%, having already fallen only slightly in August from 4.53% in July. The information is based on data from the CBA Hypomonitor, which captures data from all domestic banks and building societies providing mortgage loans. The mortgage market in the Czech Republic is celebrating 30 years. The 30 Years of Mortgages conference will commemorate the anniversary.
A year-on-year drop in mortgage rates of 0.44% points reduces monthly repayments by more than CZK 1.1 thousand. This is 1.2% of the mortgage applicant's net income. The average size of a newly granted mortgage returned to growth in September to CZK 4.35 million. Its year-on-year increase of CZK 590 thousand thus raised the average monthly instalment by almost CZK 3.2 thousand. CZK, i.e. by approximately 3.4% of the applicant's income.
If mortgages maintain the momentum of the last four months, i.e. June to September, then in 2025 the volume of new mortgages without refinancing could reach CZK 316 billion, +38% compared to last year. The recent trend thus leads to a better annual outlook than a month or three ago, when the estimate was closer to CZK 300bn. The outlook for stronger volumes is also accompanied by a better estimate of the number of new mortgages this year at 75.9k, above the average estimate of the previous three months (73k).
The new mortgage numbers reinforce the recent trend, and so will probably continue to pose an upside risk to the CNB's monetary policy settings (2-week repo now at 3.5%), and are also likely to keep the non-trivial debate over macroprudential policy settings alive, with the next decision scheduled for 27 November.
Table 1: Summary of mortgage origination volumes and average interest rates for September 2025 and so far this year
monthly values | values since the beginning of the year | ||||||
Volume | Number | Rate | Volume | Number | Rate | ||
Total | 37,6 | 8 952 | 4,52 | 292,9 | 72 941 | 4,60 | |
New loans | 29,6 | 6 795 | 4,52 | 235,1 | 56 532 | 4,61 | |
of which: | |||||||
for purchase | 23,6 | 5 348 | 4,51 | 187,8 | 44 290 | 4,60 | |
for construction | 4,1 | 959 | 4,50 | 35,5 | 8 756 | 4,57 | |
Other | 1,9 | 488 | 4,66 | 11,9 | 3 486 | 4,79 | |
Refinanced from another institution | 6,8 | 1 845 | 4,49 | 47,3 | 13 555 | 4,56 | |
Refinanced internally, increased | 1,2 | 312 | 4,54 | 10,5 | 2 854 | 4,57 | |
Source. | |||||||
Post-holiday return to strong mortgage volume after milder August correction
In September, banks and building societies actually granted new mortgage loans worth CZK 29.6 billion, and in addition, clients refinanced or increased their mortgages to the extent of CZK 8 billion. Compared to August, new mortgage activity thus rose by around 14% in volume terms. After seasonal adjustment, September's new mortgage figures brought the increase to CZK 31.3 billion. This represents a 20.6% improvement on August's CZK 25.9 billion and is above the average volume of the previous three months (CZK 26.6 billion). In year-on-year terms, the growth in mortgage origination volumes returned to 50% in September after a short-term slowdown to 1% y-o-y growth in August (strong base effect associated with strong volumes in August 2024 due to the amendment to the Eligible Costs Act) and after an average 83% y-o-y increase last year.
"September's figures confirmed that the strong summer activity in the mortgage market was no exception. The mortgage market remains very buoyant, with both the number and volume of new loans increasing.The average amount of a new mortgage exceeded CZK 4.3 million for the first time and its median is probably around CZK 3.4 million," notes Jaromír Šindel, chief economist at the Czech Banking Association.
The number of new mortgages reached a 44-month high in September, surpassing 2019 levels this year. The number of new mortgages in September rose 11.6% month-on-month to 6,795, up 30% from a year ago. We estimate that the seasonally adjusted number was around 7,244, around 14% above the average number (6,346) in the previous three months. Year-to-date, the number of new mortgages has reached 56,500 (+25.5% yoy). The dynamics of the number of new mortgages from the previous four months, i.e. June to September, implies an increase to 75.9 thousand this year. This would be almost 23% higher than last year and above the 72k of 2019, but this year's number will remain below the average numbers of around 95k from 2016 to 2018 or the 114k of 2021.
Chart 1: New mortgages granted without refinancing
In September 2025, banks and building societies granted new mortgages worth CZK 29.6 billion, 14% more than in August. The seasonal adjustment suggests an improvement of more than 20% to CZK 31.3 billion.
Source: CNB, CBA Hypomonitor (volumes before 2020 are from CNB statistics).
The higher ratio of refinanced loans is in line with the current trend and is likely to increase. The volume of refinanced and increased loans (internally or from another institution) rose to CZK 8 billion in September. This is 104% above the average 3.9 billion refinanced last year and 272% above the 2.2 billion refinanced in 2023. The share of refinanced loans in total mortgage originations fell slightly to 21.3%. However, it remains well above last year's 17% average or from 2022-2023, but remains below the nearly 29% share from 2020-2021, when households refinanced at a mortgage rate of 2.14%. In September 2025, households refinanced at a rate of 4.5%, but this is still a significant 0.36% point lower than the 4.86% rate a year ago.
Overall, banks and building societies granted new and refinanced mortgages worth CZK 37.6 billion in September, 13.3% more than a month ago. Their total volume so far this year has reached CZK 293 billion, a 47% increase compared to January-September of the previous year.
The average mortgage rate stabilised at 4.52% in September
The average realised interest rate on new mortgages remained essentially unchanged at 4.52% in September, after having already fallen only slightly in August from 4.53% in July. Its September level, however, is still 0.44% points lower than the 4.96% rate a year ago, which reduces monthly mortgage payments by around 1.2% of the applicant's net income, or 1.1k. CZK. By comparison, the average mortgage rate in 2024 was 5.07% compared to 5.81% in 2023.
"The average interest rate on mortgages is basically unchanged. While swap rates fell slightly in early October, even in the face of lower-than-expected inflation, they are still near their highest levels in a year.Thus, we probably cannot expect a significant cheapening of mortgages," believes Petr Gapko, chief economist at Moneta banka.
Chart 2: Average mortgage rate - new business
The Septembermortgage rate stabilised at 4.52% with a year-on-year decline of less than half a percentage point.
Source: CNB, CBA Hypomonitor
"The September mortgage production figures show that the scope and conditions for further interest rate cuts are now limited and a further move lower cannot be counted on. On the other hand, prices of all types of real estate are rising steeply; according to our CSOB Housing Index, apartments, for example, jumped by as much as 13.8 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter.In this situation, it is therefore better for those interested in owning their own home not to hesitate and to take advantage of the still current property prices and mortgage loan conditions to secure financing for their desired flats or houses," says Martin Vašek, CEO of ČSOB Hypoteční banka.
Market interest rates,[1] which are a key influence on mortgage rates, rose further in September (also due to the election and expectations of looser fiscal policy), which is likely to limit further significant declines in mortgage rates in the future. Czech five-year interest rate swaps rose 0.11% points to 3.78% in September from 3.67% in August and were above July's 3.65%. Their September level is 0.12% point below the previous second quarter's 3.66%. Over the past twelve months, Czech five-year swaps have ranged between monthly averages of 3.29% (in April 2025) and 3.78% (in September 2025). Compared to the average level of five-year swaps in 2025, September rates were 0.2% point higher. For US five-year interest rate swaps, they fell to 3.57% in September from 3.69% in August (in anticipation of further central bank rate cuts) and were 0.55% points below their average level in 2024. Euro five-year swaps were essentially unchanged at 2.36% in September (also reflecting expectations of an unchanged ECB interest rate) and were 0.22% points below their average level last year of 2.58%.
The CBA Hypomonitor mortgage rate for new mortgages remained at 4.52% in September and was thus approximately 0.91% points above average market swap rates. This is approximately 0.17% points below the long-term average since 2014 (1.08% points), while in the previous three months this spread to the long-term average was -0.04% points.
[1] These are primarily long-dated interest rate swaps (IRS), which reflect the price of money at longer maturities, such as 2 to 10 years.
Chart 3: Market long-term rates continued to rise in September, followed by a slight correction in early October in response to the post-election result and lower-than-expected September inflation
Source: LSEG, Macrobond (13 October 2025), CBA
The average size of a new mortgage actually granted rose slightly to CZK 4.35m in September. CZK, i.e. by more than 2% month-on-month. Its size is thus 16% higher than the CZK 3.76 million in the same period last year. CZK 16.76 million a year ago. Taking into account the extraordinary value of almost CZK 4 million, the mortgage market has grown by more than a quarter. CZK in August 2024 (effect of new legislation), the average value has been rising steadily since last April and is 26% above the previous record level of CZK 3.46 million set in November 2021. CZK. A gradual decline in mortgage rates, or slightly stronger growth in real household incomes (3.9% y/y in Q2-2025 or charted here), together with the CNB's continued relaxation of macroprudential income limits (only 80% LTV limit or 90% for applicants under 36 years old), is making it possible to achieve a higher mortgage. The rising mortgage amounts are then also linked to the evolution of house prices, which, according to Flat Zone data, maintained a still strong 10% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025 (see charts on the CBA Monitor - CBA Monitor or in the commentary here). CSO data points to house price growth of around 15% y/y and an overall house price index of around 10% y/y in Q1 2015 (see commentary here)
Chart 4: Average amount of actual new mortgages granted by purpose
The average mortgage amount returned to further growth after a short pause in August to CZK 4.35 million. The average mortgage is now 7% higher this year than a year ago.
Source: CNB, CBA Hypomonitor
Impact on the average monthly mortgage payment of around CZK 23.4 thousand
The combination of the fall in interest rates and the higher average mortgage amount in September 2025 compared to the 2024 averages increased the average monthly mortgage payment by CZK 2.4k. Kc. The scenarios of the evolution of the monthly payment for different mortgage maturities are shown in Table 2. It suggests that a fall in mortgage rates of almost 0.6% points relative to their average rate of 5.07% in 2024 would, for an average mortgage size with a typical repayment term of around 26.8 years, reduce the monthly repayment by just under CZK 1 400 to around CZK 23 400 000. This is a reduction of CZK 1,5 % of the applicant's net income compared to the average repayment in the previous year. Compared to the average mortgage rate of 5.81% in 2023, the savings due to the interest rate amounted to less than CZK 3 300 for a mortgage at its current average value.
However, the current average mortgage amount is 18% higher than its average amount in 2024, which contributes to an increase in the monthly payment of CZK 3.6k. The average monthly mortgage payment in the previous year, based on the previous year's average mortgage amount, but at the current interest rate. The mortgage payment of CZK 1 million with a 30-year maturity at current interest rates is around CZK 5.1 thousand.
Conversely, compared to the average 2.8% mortgage interest rate for new mortgages in 2019, the current refinance mortgage rate of 4.5% when the loan maturity is shortened raises the monthly repayments on the average mortgage by almost CZK 1,700, or about 3.3% of the current gross average wage.
Table 2: Illustration of the average monthly mortgage payment by length of repayment and interest rate
Average size of a new mortgage in CZK: | 4 351 030 | ||||||
Average interest rate in %: | 2,0 | 3,0 | 4,0 | 4,52 | 5,0 | 6,0 | |
Monthly instalment: | |||||||
Mortgage maturity in years: | 15 | 28 000 | 30 050 | 32 180 | 33 330 | 34 410 | 36 720 |
20 | 22 010 | 24 130 | 26 370 | 27 580 | 28 710 | 31 170 | |
25 | 18 440 | 20 630 | 22 970 | 24 240 | 25 440 | 28 030 | |
26,8 | 17 510 | 19 720 | 22 090 | 23 380 | 24 600 | 27 250 | |
30 | 16 080 | 18 340 | 20 770 | 22 100 | 23 360 | 26 090 | |
Source: CBA [2] | |||||||
Note: the coloured column corresponds to the interest rate of the latest CBA Hypomonitor, other rates are illustrative; the coloured row corresponds to the average maturity of new mortgages according to CNB data; amounts are rounded to tens of crowns. | |||||||
[2] The table is available in an xls file attached on the CBA Hypomonitor website
Statistical annex
Source: CBA Hypomonitor
Note: These are actually new mortgages (i.e. without refinancing and increases). The underlying data is available in the xls file attached on the CBA Hypomonitor website. The outlook to the end of the year (fcst) is a snapshot - based on the current trend, not a model prediction.
Chart 5: Illustrative comparison of the average monthly mortgage payment with a year ago, depending on the interest rate, mortgage size and maturity in years
In ayear-on-year comparison, the fall in the mortgage rate resulted in a saving of CZK 1 110 in the average monthly mortgage payment, but the increase in the average mortgage amount caused an increase of CZK 3 170.
Source: CBA. Note: amounts are rounded to tens of crowns.
Mortgage market in 2024: record growth of 83%
For the whole year 2024, banks and building societies granted new mortgage loans in the volume of CZK 228 billion. In addition, mortgages were refinanced to the tune of CZK 47 billion, bringing the total mortgage market to CZK 275 billion in 2024 from CZK 150 billion in 2023. If we adjust the volumes for the 5-8% increase in house prices (according to various statistics), the volume of new mortgages grew slightly less in real terms. This corresponds to a more modest 53% year-on-year increase in the number of new mortgages in 2024 to nearly 62,000 and a nearly 20% increase in the average amount of a new mortgage granted to CZK 3.7 million. Compared to the pre-pandemic years 2017-2019, the volume of new mortgages granted in 2024 was roughly less than a fifth higher.
Chart 6: Annual volume, number and average amount of mortgages granted between 2020 and 2024
Source: CBA Hypomonitor
CBA publishes summary statistics for the entire banking market
The Czech Banking Association, in cooperation with its member banks, publishes new aggregate statistics on the housing market. These are mainly the volumes and numbers of newly granted and refinanced mortgages and the respective interest rate. These statistics are published by the CBA in aggregate form for the entire banking sector on a regular basis around the middle of each month. All domestic banks and building societies providing mortgages in the Czech Republic participate in the survey. The data are available from January 2020 in the attached file on the website www.cbaonline.cz, where the relevant statistics can also be found separately for banks and building societies. The above figures are for the sector as a whole, which can also be viewed in a simple graphical form on the cbamonitor.cz website.
Methodology of the CBA Hypomonitor
The CBA Hypomonitor divides mortgage loans granted by banks and building societies to households into several categories in order to distinguish new loans from refinanced or internal refixations. New loans are then reported in categories according to the purpose of the loan:
1. new loans
These are loans whose full volume enters the economy for the first time. This category does not include loan consolidations or loan refinancing. It is divided into three categories:
- Purchase of real estate
- Property construction - including property renovation
- Other new arrangements - only new loans that are in no way related to the purchase or construction of the property, e.g. so-called American mortgages, settlement of a JVM, repayment of the purchase price, settlement of an inheritance share, settlement of a cooperative share, etc.
2. Refinanced loans from another financial institution
These are loans that have been originated by refinancing one or more loans from a financial institution other than the reporting one. Irrespective of the amount refinanced and regardless of the amount of any increase, the total amount of the newly originated loan is reported in this category.
3. Loans increased or internally refinanced
These are loans that were already part of the reporting entity's portfolio in the previous reporting period and have undergone one of the following changes during the reporting period:
- an increase in the agreed amount
- changes such that the original loan has been refinanced/converted into a new loan within the reporting entity. This is a genuinely new contract and not, for example, just a new arrangement in the context of a refixation of an existing contract. Therefore, the volume of such loans in the CBA statistics is lower than 'other new arrangements' in the Czech National Bank statistics.
The following banks and building societies provide data for the CBA Hypomonitor: Air Bank, Banka Creditas, Česká spořitelna, ČSOB, ČSOB Stavební spořitelna, Fio banka, Hypoteční banka, Komerční banka, mBank, Modrá pyramida, MONETA Money Bank, MONETA Stavební spořitelna, Oberbank, Partners Banka, Raiffeisen stavební spořitelna, Raiffeisenbank, Stavební spořitelna České spořitelna, UniCredit Bank.