Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The recovery in disposable income in Q2 was still dampened by fiscal policy, so it remained weaker compared to the increase in wages and property prices. Nevertheless, households managed to increase both consumption and their savings.
Economics
Latest data on the domestic economy, from gross domestic product to unemployment and inflation
Post-Covid recovery of economic activity
(3mma index against January-February 2020)
1.4
%yoy (01-2025)
July 2025
Comments
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist at the CBA: September sentiment brings a boost after weaker monthly data in July and thus better prospects for GDP growth - mainly thanks to retail trade and construction.
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist at the CBA: While the CNB unsurprisingly left interest rates unchanged with the two-week repo rate at 3.5%, the Board's statement on the monetary policy settings, however, was more surprising in its less hawkish tone, leaving open all possibilities for future monetary policy settings.
Commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Higher-than-expected wage growth will be the main, but not the only, reason for keeping the interest rate at 3.5% at the CNB's September meeting and for the intensification of the hawkish tone in the communication. The latter may indeed indicate a further upward movement in the interest rate, but rather in an unspecified distant horizon. A stronger koruna or tighter monetary policy through the longer end of the yield curve is unlikely to lead the CNB to a dovish mindset.
Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: CPI growth slowed to 2.5% yoy in August, but core inflation accelerated slightly to 2.8% in line with the CNB's forecast. The core services price segment, excluding imputed rent, accelerated month-on-month in August, but its three-month average remains well below the pace observed in H1-2025.
Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Although the economy breathed a half-percent growth in the second quarter, the July figures were rather disappointing and suggest a cooling. However, the Czech economy is generating upside risks to inflation, which limits the room for manoeuvre of the CNB, which is likely to stick to the CNB's 3.5% terminal interest rate thesis. August's registered unemployment confirmed a worse trend, which, however, is not confirmed by other data.
Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA (adjusted for published data on core inflation from the CNB and registered unemployment data, 18:00 8 August)
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Significant slowdown in April consumer inflation to 1.8% yoy, but still strong core inflation growth
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs, vol. II: Will Trump's reciprocal tariffs maths affect the EU's response?
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
The CNB Bank Board left interest rates unchanged in March.
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Industry above expectations in August due to the impact of the holidays, stagnated during the summer
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA