Economics

Latest data on the domestic economy, from gross domestic product to unemployment and inflation

Gross domestic product

(annual values, % yoy)

2.1 % yoy

2026

Consumer price inflation (inflation)

(annual values, % yoy)

1.9 % yoy

2026

Industrial production

(annual values, % yoy)

1.5 % yoy

2026

Gross domestic product development

2.1 % yoy

Q1 / 2026

Wage dynamics

7.4 % yoy nominal

Q4 / 2025

Monthly consumer price inflation (inflation)

2.5 % yoy total

April 2026

Monthly economic activity

(three-month average of the index against January-February 2020)

0.9 %yoy (03-2026)

March 2026

Unemployment

(%)

4.93 % (04-2026)

April 2026

Trust indicators

indices, long-term average = 100

4.8 % yoy

April 2026

Comments

Stronger wave of mortgage refixing, while the interest-rate shock eases. Higher inflation remains a risk.

This year is bringing a strong wave of expiring mortgage rate fixations, while the shorter fixation periods agreed in recent years will further increase these volumes in the years ahead. Building on the central bank’s latest estimate that mortgage fixations worth an average of CZK 534 billion per year will expire between 2026 and 2028, we present alternative interest-rate shock scenarios depending on the path of mortgage rates. In 2027–2028, the negative interest-rate shock is expected to ease to 0.1–0.6 percentage points, down from 1.1–1.4 percentage points this year. However, we also outline a more adverse scenario involving a stronger interest-rate shock. This year, the negative interest-rate shock affecting expiring mortgage fixations from the low-rate period will amount to roughly 3.5% of the average household income of mortgage applicants, although across all households the average impact will be about half that level. In both cases, the expected real growth in wages and salaries should be sufficient to offset the shock.

Retail sales continued to gain momentum in March, together with construction, in contrast to weaker industrial performance

March retail sales returned to strong growth, while March did not bring a turnaround in the stagnation of services. Industrial production did not build on February's better numbers, and a more significant deterioration was prevented by energy-intensive sectors, which does not look like a robust support in the current energy shock. Export activity also remained weaker. However, the month-on-month decline in imports resulted in the return of a solid foreign trade surplus of CZK 18 billion. Construction output, on the other hand, continued to outperform, especially in the buildings segment. However, despite still weak building permit numbers, the number of construction starts continued to rise. Infrastructure construction, on the other hand, remains weaker, presenting an opportunity for future growth. The output side of the economy thus developed in March in line with the weaker GDP growth of 0.2% q-o-q in the first quarter, which was characterised by a decline in industrial activity and a deterioration in foreign trade. These factors were only partly offset by stronger construction output and solid growth in trade and services sales (still with February data). For the CNB, the data, along with higher unemployment and softer industrial wage growth, signal a less hawkish environment than the still elevated momentum in core inflation suggests.

The CNB's new outlook for higher rates "only" translated into hawkish communication

The CNB Bank Board unanimously left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% in the face of uncertainty over the Iranian conflict, although its new forecast suggests an increase to 4% this quarter. The decision is likely to have been driven by a combination of lower economic growth at the start of the year, which may have increased the weight of an alternative scenario with slower growth and lower rates. But probably also the fact that the baseline scenario with higher rates is only assumed for two quarters. It is therefore not surprising that the Board would want to have this monetary policy move sanctified by future developments. However, the latter may surprise with an inflationary development, of which a part of the Board is aware.

April inflation accelerated by fuel, but also due to core price pressures

April consumer prices accelerated to 2.5% year-on-year and the story behind the inflation numbers is very similar to March. The acceleration mainly reflects higher fuel prices, but higher core demand inflation and, more recently, higher alcohol and tobacco prices are also creeping in. While energy and food prices still dampened the acceleration. The current dynamics and the Iranian conflict pose a risk of higher inflation for this year, and for the outlook for next year. While risks to the forecast remain volatile due to the uncertainty associated with the Iranian conflict, even if it calms down, higher core inflation represents a hawkish signal for the CNB in the form of a higher interest rate.

The Czech economy slowed in Q1. Household purchasing power remains hopeful

GDP growth slowed to below 0.2 percent in the first quarter, a negative surprise. Instead of the expected household consumption, the economy was mainly driven by investment, while foreign trade worked against growth. However, the weaker consumption may be only a temporary correction after the strong end of last year. The same applies to industrial production, and the government's temporary budget provision also had a negative impact on the first quarter. The outlook will be significantly affected by the intensification of the commodity supply crisis due to the Iranian conflict.

The CNB's hawkish wait-and-see will continue in May, but this does not hold for markets

At its meeting on 7 May, the Czech National Bank is likely to leave its interest rate unchanged at 3.5% and the tone of its communication is likely to be hawkish. This will neither surprise nor offend, but neither will it please. In the meantime, long-term market rates are rising, pricing in not only an unresolved Iranian conflict but also upside risks that may allow the effects of an energy shock to seep through. This is reflected in a further rise in the long-term equilibrium interest rate, which is at levels seen in 2023 when the central bank rate was double, which is bad news for long-term investments. Data at the end of May and beginning of June will show the state of the inflationary underpinning in the Czech economy. This will be crucial not only for the market interest rate reaction but also for the monetary policy stance if the Hormuz closure continues. In the meantime, economic policy should respond with structural changes to ease long-term interest rates.

Energy shock divides the mood in the economy

April sentiment already reflects the impact of the Iranian conflict on the Czech economy more strongly, but unevenly across sectors. Sentiment deteriorated as expected in industry, households and retail trade, while services dampened the overall deterioration thanks to stronger demand and construction. Price expectations continued to rise in industry, households and construction, while retail sales remained close to the long-term average and services corrected slightly after the previous increase. Meanwhile, labour market effects remain limited even in the harder-hit sectors and, in fact, the overall slightly worse sentiment still does not provide an immediate signal for worse growth expectations for the economy.

High March diesel price rise, third lowest price in the EU

According to Eurostat data for March, the price of diesel at Czech petrol stations rose the most in the EU, by almost 28% month-on-month, while the average increase in the EU was 19%. I am not an expert on the pricing policy of petrol stations, the density of petrol stations or the pricing policy of refineries. However, if I look at the EU fuel price statistics, it is clear that the March jump reflects: 1) the low starting price in the Czech Republic - the third lowest in the EU; 2) the lower taxation of diesel in the Czech Republic - the fourth lowest in the EU; 3) the different pricing and tax policies across EU countries in March.

Market forces in mortgage rates: the rise in market interest rates has only partially been reflected in mortgage rates. Strong competition in the market is helping.

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Mortgage rates are significantly determined by the movement of market interest rates. However, structural factors in the banking market are also important. The CNB's investigation of credit conditions in our analysis helps to explain what factors influence the difference between mortgage and market interest rates deviating from its normal level. The CBA analysis shows that a combination of stronger demand and competition among banks plays a key role. It is the latter that can lead to more favourable rates for clients without undermining market stability. The difference between mortgage rates and market rates that we have been monitoring is therefore mainly dampened by stronger demand, but in an environment of growing competition, which is key. Banks' profitability also plays a role, acting as a corrective mechanism to maintain competitive interest rate spreads but also market stability.

March core inflation showed the CNB unpleasant news

The March acceleration in consumer price inflation to 1.9% was not surprising in itself, but the acceleration in core inflation to 2.9% was less favourable, including the momentum across key segments. This indicates that price pressures in the domestic economy remain strong, especially for labour-intensive services and imputed rents, but also the koruna no longer provides a disinflationary factor for goods prices, amid strong household demand. For the Czech National Bank, the March core inflation is a hawkish signal that may reinforce interest rate growth expectations, especially if the current energy shock persists.

March inflation held back by food, but core prices continue to push retail prices

March inflation accelerated to 1.9% year-on-year in March, mainly reflecting higher fuel prices. However, the acceleration was somewhat milder than expected, helped by lower food prices. However, preliminary data suggest an acceleration in core inflation to 2.8%, which is not surprising given the still strong growth in retail sales. Although these did slightly correct the previous strong increase in January in the core segment in February. However, the strength of demand is relatively limited given the rather sluggish sales in services in the first two months of the year. The central bank will monitor the dynamics of these demand pressures, wages and core inflation, which will determine the speed and extent of its interest rate hikes in the coming months. Stronger demand is also translating into more robust imports, shrinking the foreign trade surplus that has not yet been affected by the energy price shock.

Geopolitics weakened the koruna in the first quarter, rates remained its support

The koruna weakened slightly in Q1, especially in March, under the influence of geopolitical tensions and higher risk aversion in the markets. However, higher interest rates prevented a more pronounced depreciation. The Czech currency thus remains stronger than at the beginning of last year, which is also cushioning the effects of the current energy price shock.

Stronger household incomes outpaced house price growth for six quarters

According to the CSO statistics, property prices, which include land and family houses, rose by 2% quarter-on-quarter in the final quarter of 2025. This slowed from the previous average 2.6% increase in the previous four quarters. Although the income side of demand is still lagging, real household incomes accelerated more sharply at 1.4% q-o-q (up nearly 3% in nominal terms) at the end of last year. And so did the household savings rate, which rose to 19.7%. Moreover, both figures were positively revised and there was a slight positive revision to GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025, albeit with more limited effects on the economic outlook.

March brought some conflicting data for the CNB, but the hawkish reaction to the energy shock is evident

The Czech economy accelerated at the end of last year and maintained its inflationary bias due to strong household consumption and strong wage growth unsupported by productivity. However, the central bank's New Year communication hinted at a possible interest rate cut. However, this rhetoric has been changed by the recent energy shock. For the central bank, the dynamics of core inflation will be key in the coming months, but also the pass-through of higher oil and gas prices to other price segments in the economy. March price expectations rose, but their April perception will be more guiding for the central bank.

Wages closed stronger last year and could add another 4% in real terms this year

Wage growth remained strong at the end of 2025. Average wages rose by 7.4% year-on-year and added 7.2% for the year as a whole. Thanks to low inflation, this meant real wage growth of 4.7%, higher than forecast. While nominal growth should slow this year, real wages may continue to grow solidly. The average nominal wage reached CZK 49.2 thousand last year, surpassing CZK 50 thousand at the end of the year on a seasonally adjusted basis and reaching almost CZK 51 thousand in market sectors. The median wage of CZK 42 thousand was approximately 85% of the average wage.

February inflation surprised with a slowdown to 1.4% mainly due to food

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: February consumer inflation pleasantly surprised the consensus and the central bank by slowing to 1.4% year-on-year. The inflation was mainly helped by a further decline in food prices, but also by a slightly milder rise in services prices. However, the energy shock due to the Iran war, together with still higher core inflation, is likely to pull annual consumer price growth back to an average 1.7% for the rest of the half-year. Details on core inflation, and hence services prices, will be important for both the inflation outlook and the central bank's interest rate outlook in the context of continued wage and unit labour cost growth (see charts below for market developments).

Consumption, wages and industry dragged GDP growth, but do not favour a fall in interest rates

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the Czech Bank of Economics: The Czech economy closed last year with stronger growth than originally expected. The Czech economy could repeat its 2.6% annual growth this year. Household consumption was the driving force at the end of last year, supported by stronger wage growth, but also by strong growth in manufacturing. However, higher wage costs have far outpaced productivity growth, and so still elevated core inflation will remain the central bank's focus, which should result in the CNB interest rate holding steady at 3.5%.

Cheaper electricity has distorted the inflation picture, while core remains strong

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: January's significant slowdown in consumer prices to 1.6% year-on-year mainly reflected the transfer of contributions for renewable energy from household invoices to the state budget. By contrast, core inflation eased slightly to 2.7% y/y from 2.8% at the end of last year. Food prices, which had contributed significantly to the moderation of inflation at the end of last year, rose in January, but less than would have been seasonally consistent. Consumer price growth is expected to reach around 1.7% yoy this year, following a 2.5% rise in 2025, but with core inflation still rising at around 2.5%, this will also require a disinflationary impulse, which is not yet coming from the property market segment, for example. Higher core inflation should keep the CNB interest rate steady at 3.5%, although the market is pricing in a slight cut, as are half of the CBA forecast panelists.

December activity closed the end of last year on a solid note

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: December data brought a positive end to the year with continued better-than-expected industrial production, including its structure. The same is true for construction output, which returned to a better performance, but the weaker number of building permits remains a drag. Foreign trade posted an improved surplus of over 25 billion kronor in December and nearly 220 billion kronor for the full year 2025. This is equivalent to 2.6% of GDP, down from 2.8% a year ago. While retail trade did not impress at the end of the year, this was not the case for industrial wages, which returned to double-digit annualized growth at the end of the year. Overall, the December data should not prompt more dovish rhetoric from the CNB, as it does not yet signal a disinflationary contribution from the real economy towards core inflation. However, in its new, stronger outlook, the CNB is also assuming an improvement in labour productivity, which, together with tighter monetary conditions, will bring inflation back towards its target.

January inflation slowed, but demand pressures did not

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The significant slowdown in consumer prices to 1.6% year on year in January did not surprise the consensus and mainly reflects lower energy prices, but also food and fuel prices. On the contrary, I expect core inflation to remain at at least 2.8% growth from the end of last year. Although core retail sales corrected with a 0.6% month-on-month decline in December, annualized momentum, along with household plans, remains strong and does not suggest easing demand pressures. Thus, even in light of fiscal plans, interest rate stability appears to be an appropriate stance for the central bank, at least for the coming months. This is inconsistent with interest rate market targeting, but in my view this would require significantly lower core inflation pressures.

Fiscal policy keeps all options open for CNB interest rate movements

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The January slowdown in consumer price growth to 1.6% (mainly due to fiscal intervention in regulated energy prices) was accompanied by a discussion of a possible slight reduction in the CNB interest rate in order to fine-tune the recent interest rate cycle. However, persistently higher momentum in core inflation has left its interest rate unchanged, and risks associated with service prices and fiscal policy leave all options open for the central bank to move its interest rate. This is also true in light of the central bank's new forecast outlook, which admittedly encourages a marginal short-term interest rate cut before rising to 4% as early as the end of this year. With its decision and the reiteration of both inflationary and disinflationary risks, the central bank has tempered the dovish expectations of some market participants and the outlook for a 3.5% rate still seems likely. The key is the reiteration of the thesis of the sustainability of a return to the inflation target through softer core inflation.

Slight economic slowdown in late 2025 and this year is poised to repeat last year's 2.5% growth

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Economic growth slowed down at the end of last year, but still achieved solid 0.5% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth.The structure of growth has not changed significantly - consumption is dominant, which is probably not true of investment. This is in line with the latest sentiment data. A more positive sign is improving productivity. The outlook for this year is a repeat of last year's 2.5% growth, thanks to a better outlook for real wage growth and a change in fiscal policy. Conversely, weaker external demand, even given industrial sentiment, is likely to be a drag on stronger economic growth.

Service prices as a signal for setting (i.e. falling) CNB interest rates

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The analysis summarizes the government's regulatory steps that will further slow consumer price growth this year, probably well below 2%. What does this mean for the CBA, which seems to be starting to deflate the pigeon balloons, at least more than at the end of last year? Given its earlier communications, where inflation is headed in 2027 should be key, which will also indicate the direction of core inflation in the months ahead. And it is not just the case of still strongly rising services prices that are the focus of this analysis, the first part of the triptych ahead of the CNB's February board meeting.

January stability in economic sentiment hides four clearer signals for growth and inflation

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: January show stable economic sentiment, but industry continues to be plagued by weak demand with negative consequences for investment. On the other hand, consumer purchasing plans remain full of optimism, also thanks to both lower price expectations, which are dampened by industry but not services, and better expectations on the labour market, where the service sector, which is lacking more workers, is making a positive contribution. Thus, it looks like continued solid economic growth this year with noticeably lower headline inflation. This combination is likely to shift the discussion at the CNB from rate stability or growth to rate stability or a possible decline, which is, however, not certain given the ongoing "services inflation" and the change in fiscal policy settings.

November brought strong industry and exports, but also stagnation in construction

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The November data confirm an acceleration in industrial activity, driven by the automotive industry and the recovery of energy-intensive sectors, which pushed annual industrial growth closer to 6%, the highest this year. However, further improvement may be hampered by the December decline in industrial sentiment and export expectations. Construction remains weak, and its high 7% y/y growth reflects the past rather than the current reality of limited public investment and weak building permits issued. The labour market has not yet cooled significantly despite a higher 3.3% selection unemployment rate, confirming continued solid wage growth of around 6% in industry. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth will thus be underpinned by industrial production in Q4, probably also retail, but construction and the foreign trade surplus will rather take a bite out of it.

Food and energy prices kept inflation at 2.1% in December

December inflation in the Czech Republic remained at 2.1% year-on-year and was lower than expected by the Czech National Bank and the market. Developments in food and energy prices helped keep headline inflation low, while core inflation is likely to have rebounded to 2.8% after a slowdown in November. However, both figures still missed the CNB's outlook, and this is likely to be repeated this year. This should dampen the upside risk to the central bank's interest rate, but it will remain impatient in waiting to see how fiscal policy affects the economy and inflation through 2027.

House prices have maintained 10% momentum, which is not the case for disposable income

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Even the third quarter of 2025 did not bring a significant recovery in household disposable income. Despite this, the household savings rate has been abnormally high for almost six years. In Q3, it was 18.4%. Weaker quarter-on-quarter growth in disposable income has not kept pace with house prices for six quarters in a row. On a year-over-year basis, we are comparing 3.4% growth in disposable income vs. a 10.8% increase in home purchase prices including land (HPI).

Continued December downturn in sentiment, but not in households' purchase plans

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The deterioration in economic sentiment in December does not yet represent a turning point for the outlook for the Czech economic recovery, which anticipates a deterioration in dynamics at the end of the year 2025. Household consumption plans remain resilient, while industry and the labour market are sending rather cautious signals, which poses a risk to the expected recovery in investment activity and the early stabilisation of rising registered unemployment. The outlook for lower administered energy prices supports falling price expectations, but persistent pressures in construction and services continue to dampen disinflationary optimism, sending a neutral rather than dovish message to the central bank.

Is the unchanged CNB interest rate at 3.50% a sign of the coming bonanza or the calm before the storm?

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The central bank did not surprise by unanimously leaving interest rates unchanged, i.e. with the two-week repo rate at 3.50%, for the fifth meeting in a row after a 25bp cut in May. Although the Board did not change its view of the risks and uncertainties surrounding the CNB's November forecast, it did assess the risks to inflation as balanced, given the risks in financial markets and the removal of the renewable energy levy, following November's upside assessment.

The Easing of November consumer inflation to 2.1% is not just about food

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: November consumer price growth did not slow to 2.1% year-on-year only thanks to volatile food prices, which were lower in November. The slowdown in core inflation to 2.6% was probably also due to lower prices for holidays, clothing, household furnishings, as well as lower prices in healthcare and energy. This, and November's move closer to the price inflation target for both headline and core inflation, eases hawkish pressures on the central bank. However, the continued brisk momentum in rent and food and other service prices will not allow the central bank to contemplate an interest rate cut.

October output disappoints, wages, consumption and historic foreign trade surplus keep driving growth

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The manufacturing part of the Czech economy remained subdued in October, which supports expectations of weaker GDP growth at the end of this year. However, a post-covetous historical foreign trade surplus is supporting the crown, which, together with a persistently solid wage pace, supported October retail sales. This part of the recent Czech growth model thus remains unchanged, but this is no longer the case for the construction sector, where persistent weakness in building permits and uncertainty over investment financing pose downside risks next year.

Volatile food prices pushed November inflation down to 2.1% amid still strong 7.1% wage growth

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Consumer price growth slowed to 2.1% yoy in November. The main reason was a deeper decline in food prices, partly due to a slowdown in core inflation from the recent 2.8%. Thus, although inflation surprised positively, food price volatility and still strong rapid wage growth of 7.1% in Q3 will dampen the CNB's willingness to return to rate cuts. And the same reasons dampen the risks to the CBA's outlook for consumer inflation next year at around 2.2%. There remains a significant gap in the recovery in real gross wages between the market and non-market sectors.

Strong GDP growth masks a key problem, namely continued weak investment and falling productivity while wage growth remains strong

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The stronger quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 0.8% in Q3 mainly reflected foreign trade, while the contribution of domestic demand was not as strong as in the previous quarter. Moreover, there has been a continuous decline in fixed investment excluding construction investment, undermining the future potential of the economy and keeping productivity growth low and fuelling inflationary growth in unit labour costs (see five key points below).

CNB tightens conditions for investment mortgages: 9% impact or necessary redistribution of demand?

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The Central Bank, through stricter requirements in the form of recommendations for investment mortgages, has decided to make a modest effort to correct mortgage demand on the real estate market, which remains very tight in terms of prices, mainly due to the supply side - see the drop in building permits.

November sentiment slightly worse on average, but with significant movements in detail

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: November's confidence in the Czech economy weakened slightly, but still suggests continued growth. However, there are significant differences across sectors, reflecting the looming change in economic policy after the elections. Households remain visibly more optimistic, thanks to rapidly rising wages and perhaps in response to the new government's plans, while industry is returning to earlier weakness. Services are again reporting rising price expectations, keeping the central bank in hawkish mode.

October consumer inflation at 2.5% and continued rise in unemployment keep CNB on tenterhooks

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: October consumer inflation not only confirmed a more pronounced shock from higher food prices, but also showed higher prices of transport services and prices of means of transport as part of core inflation. In the longer term, it is worth noting that imputed rental prices have already caught up with the previous inflation shock, and the same has been true for a few months for holiday prices. Thus, the higher October inflation and unemployment data will not help the central bank or the market resolve its dilemma of the next interest rate move.

Not consumption, but strong September manufacturing helped to boost GDP and October should be no different

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Retail and services sales disappointed in September despite solid wage growth, which was confirmed by September industrial wages. A gradual but steady rise in unemployment is likely to be in evidence here. Thus, the stronger GDP growth in Q3 was helped by September's industrial production, which complemented the strong construction output of the previous months. Given sentiment, things might not be different in October.

Tighter monetary conditions left the CNB's options open. The CNB's new forecast paves the way for more cautious communication in the rest of the year

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The CNB is waiting for a new impulse. The CNB is waiting for the new government to announce its plans, both from the data and from future analysis of the new government's upcoming plans. The CNB's own outlook, with more moderate consumer price growth at the end of the year and a stronger economy in real terms in Q3, opens up the possibility of more hawkish communication in the rest of the year. But I believe the CNB will wait to reassess its communication until the contours of the new government's policy are clearer.

Higher food prices pushed October consumer inflation back to 2.5% growth, keeping the CNB on higher alert

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The return of consumer price inflation to 2.5% in October will keep the CNB vigilant. Although this was due to higher food prices, the current core inflation rate remains slightly above the inflation target, which will probably be evident next spring. Although selected plans of the new coalition will help to further tame price rises, others are more likely to maintain an inflationary undercurrent in the economy.

CNB rate stability after November - between the koruna and post-election reality

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The stronger koruna, lower inflation, and the return of productivity growth give the central bank some relief, allowing it to monitor how wages and the post-election fiscal plans—often pulling in opposite directions—will play out.

Banking statistics for September 2025

Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association

The economy delivered another surprise with productivity growth picking up in Q3.

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The return to stronger economic growth of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 was a surprise, confirming the indications of stronger confidence in September. At the same time, stagnant employment added a welcome return to stronger productivity, which may partially dampen the hawkish impulse of stronger GDP for the CNB. The CNB will most likely leave interest rates unchanged at 3.5%, not only at the November meeting, but GDP details may set a more distinct tone to its communication later in November.

October industrial sentiment awakening with hawkish price signals

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Stronger sentiment in October suggests a return to stronger GDP growth for the end of this year after a probably slightly worse result in Q3. Higher price expectations may delay the return of core inflation to the target.

Softer September inflation gives CNB room to wait for government formation

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Lower food prices, a seasonal decline in holiday prices and a slight catch-up in education prices contributed to September's more moderate consumer price growth of 2.3%, which, however, reminds us of possible price catch-up in other segments next year as well (see Chart 4).

August retail and construction sectors kept the economy growing

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The continuation of the construction boom and the recovery in retail sales in August was dampened by the return of weaker industrial production, despite stronger exports. However, the positive sentiment in September suggests that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q3 may not be as pronounced as the July and August figures suggest.

September's more pronounced slowdown in inflation brings relief after a mildly inflationary general election result

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The more pronounced slowdown in September consumer price growth to 2.3% year on year reflects a decline in most components of the consumer basket. There are three messages for the CNB that are likely to leave the CNB's communication unchanged, i.e. open to all interest rate possibilities.

Slight recovery in disposable income was enough for stronger consumption and higher savings, but not for more expensive real estate

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The recovery in disposable income in Q2 was still dampened by fiscal policy, so it remained weaker compared to the increase in wages and property prices. Nevertheless, households managed to increase both consumption and their savings.

September sentiment pleasantly surprised

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist at the CBA: September sentiment brings a boost after weaker monthly data in July and thus better prospects for GDP growth - mainly thanks to retail trade and construction.

The CNB surprised with a less hawkish tone in keeping the interest rate at 3.5%

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist at the CBA: While the CNB unsurprisingly left interest rates unchanged with the two-week repo rate at 3.5%, the Board's statement on the monetary policy settings, however, was more surprising in its less hawkish tone, leaving open all possibilities for future monetary policy settings.

September CNB interest rate decision: hawkish calm before the storm?

Commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Higher-than-expected wage growth will be the main, but not the only, reason for keeping the interest rate at 3.5% at the CNB's September meeting and for the intensification of the hawkish tone in the communication. The latter may indeed indicate a further upward movement in the interest rate, but rather in an unspecified distant horizon. A stronger koruna or tighter monetary policy through the longer end of the yield curve is unlikely to lead the CNB to a dovish mindset.

August consumer prices show more moderate momentum in core services inflation

Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: CPI growth slowed to 2.5% yoy in August, but core inflation accelerated slightly to 2.8% in line with the CNB's forecast. The core services price segment, excluding imputed rent, accelerated month-on-month in August, but its three-month average remains well below the pace observed in H1-2025.

Weak July industrial and services recovery hinders continuation of solid GDP growth

Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Although the economy breathed a half-percent growth in the second quarter, the July figures were rather disappointing and suggest a cooling. However, the Czech economy is generating upside risks to inflation, which limits the room for manoeuvre of the CNB, which is likely to stick to the CNB's 3.5% terminal interest rate thesis. August's registered unemployment confirmed a worse trend, which, however, is not confirmed by other data.

Banking statistics for July 2025

Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association

August sentiment signals stronger growth, less inflationary pressures in services prices, but also worse news for the labour market

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

July details of softer headline and core inflation look promising, registered unemployment less so

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA (adjusted for published data on core inflation from the CNB and registered unemployment data, 18:00 8 August)

Retail and services sales slowed in June, but sentiment remains positive

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

The CNB did not surprise with its decision to keep the 3.5% rate, nor with its hawkish commentary

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Manufacturing fell in June, temporarily due to the energy sector, while construction and foreign trade represent a positive boost to growth, including wages

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

July core inflation may ease CNB's hawkish tone

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

The CNB will come up with another pause and hawkish communication in August

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Slower GDP growth in Q2 likely due to weaker June

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

July sentiment brings slightly worse signal for the economy and the CNB

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Strong June year-on-year consumer price growth masks weaker month-on-month services price growth

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

June CPI core inflation growth keeps CNB interest rates stable

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

GDP revision: this year's growth is headed above 2% (depending on the Trump deal) thanks to stronger consumption amid higher saving rate

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Will the CNB stay at 3.5% or just pause and for how long?

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

June sentiment brings mostly encouraging news for growth, labour market and core inflation

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Highest unemployment in eight years does not dampen hawkish core inflation due to solid economic growth

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Real wage growth slightly below 4% in Q1, driven by non-market sector

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

May's return of inflation to higher 2.4% growth amid strong wage growth will lure the hawkish voice at the CNB

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Stronger GDP growth in Q1 does not bring a disinflationary break

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

May confidence in the economy: despite all the setbacks, we're moving on

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Core inflation did not contribute to the April inflation slowdown

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Strong March economic data spoils weaker industrial payrolls and gives way to surprising growth structure

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Cautious CNB interest rate cut to 3.5%

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Significant slowdown in April consumer inflation to 1.8% yoy, but still strong core inflation growth

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Three highlights in the weaker GDP growth of half a percent

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Worse April sentiment does not bring immediate relief for the CNB

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Consumer prices maintained annual growth at 2.7% in March despite softer core inflation

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Unemployment continued to rise in March

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Solid February industrial growth but slowing wage growth

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs, vol. II: Will Trump's reciprocal tariffs maths affect the EU's response?

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

March inflation at 2.7% brings another cold shower for doves

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Trump's reciprocal tariffs: 20% on Czech, EU exports and 25% tariffs on cars, iron and aluminium

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

CNB interest rate remained at 3.75% with hawkish commentary

The CNB Bank Board left interest rates unchanged in March.

Stronger March sentiment in line with expected consumption-driven economic growth

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Consumer prices growth slowed only slightly to 2.7% due to strong core inflation

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Wages maintained a strong 1.7% quarter-on-quarter pace at the end of last year

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Inflation slowed to 2.7 percent in February

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Inflation slowed to 2.8 percent in January

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Inflation fell below 3 percent in January

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Czech economy grew by one percent last year

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Worse January confidence with still different growth limits across sectors

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

December inflation: food prices down and services prices up more moderately

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Cars have cooled the industry and worse sentiment ahead

Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Confidence in the economy stagnated in October

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

August retail sales above expectations due to revisions to older data, but slight improvement is evident

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Industry above expectations in August due to the impact of the holidays, stagnated during the summer

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Confidence in the economy rose across the board in September

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Inflation remained at 2.2 percent in August

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Unemployment stagnated in August

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Wage growth in Q2 remained below expectations

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economy grew by 0.6 percent year-on-year in Q2

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Confidence in the economy fell in August, households for 4th month in a row

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Industrial producer prices accelerated in July

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Inflation rose slightly in July

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Czech industry remains in recession

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Retail sales rose above expectations in June

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic growth accelerated to 0.3 percent in Q2

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

July confidence fell for both households and businesses

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Price growth in services accelerated again in June

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Inflation fell to 2 percent in June

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Unemployment stagnated in June

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Industry fell by 3.2 percent year-on-year in May

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Producer prices fell above expectations in May

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Inflation slowed to 2.6 percent in May

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Unemployment fell to 3.6 percent in May

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Industry slightly down year-on-year in April

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Retail sales slowed in April, but still doing well

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Wages grew by 7 percent in Q1, above expectations

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economy grew by 0.2 percent in Q1, statisticians downgrade estimate

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Confidence in the economy fell slightly in May

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

April producer prices calmed fears of accelerating inflation

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Inflation accelerated markedly to 2.9 percent in April

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Unemployment fell to 3.7 percent in April

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Retail sales rose significantly in March

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Industry fell by 2.7% yoy in March

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

The economy grew in Q1, according to the CZSO estimate

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Inflation remained at 2% in March

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Unemployment fell below 4 percent in March

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Czech industry grew by 0.7 percent in February

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Confidence in the economy rose across the board in March

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Producer prices are generally falling, while prices of services are rising

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Inflation fell to 2% in February, lowest since 2018

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Confidence in the economy fell in February

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Czech industry declined by 0.4% last year

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Czech economy contracted by 0.4 percent last year

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Confidence in the economy fell in January

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Producer prices fell in December, foreshadowing further food price cuts

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Inflation slowed to 6.9% in December

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Unemployment rises to 3.7 % in December

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Industry fell in November

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Producer prices mostly rose in November, but decline continues in agriculture

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA