Monthly consumer price inflation (inflation)
2.1
% yoy total
Current value
2.5
% yoy
Last month's value
Monthly consumer price inflation (inflation)
Comments
Volatile food prices pushed November inflation down to 2.1% amid still strong 7.1% wage growth
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Consumer price growth slowed to 2.1% yoy in November. The main reason was a deeper decline in food prices, partly due to a slowdown in core inflation from the recent 2.8%. Thus, although inflation surprised positively, food price volatility and still strong rapid wage growth of 7.1% in Q3 will dampen the CNB's willingness to return to rate cuts. And the same reasons dampen the risks to the CBA's outlook for consumer inflation next year at around 2.2%. There remains a significant gap in the recovery in real gross wages between the market and non-market sectors.
October consumer inflation at 2.5% and continued rise in unemployment keep CNB on tenterhooks
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: October consumer inflation not only confirmed a more pronounced shock from higher food prices, but also showed higher prices of transport services and prices of means of transport as part of core inflation. In the longer term, it is worth noting that imputed rental prices have already caught up with the previous inflation shock, and the same has been true for a few months for holiday prices. Thus, the higher October inflation and unemployment data will not help the central bank or the market resolve its dilemma of the next interest rate move.
Tighter monetary conditions left the CNB's options open. The CNB's new forecast paves the way for more cautious communication in the rest of the year
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The CNB is waiting for a new impulse. The CNB is waiting for the new government to announce its plans, both from the data and from future analysis of the new government's upcoming plans. The CNB's own outlook, with more moderate consumer price growth at the end of the year and a stronger economy in real terms in Q3, opens up the possibility of more hawkish communication in the rest of the year. But I believe the CNB will wait to reassess its communication until the contours of the new government's policy are clearer.
Higher food prices pushed October consumer inflation back to 2.5% growth, keeping the CNB on higher alert
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The return of consumer price inflation to 2.5% in October will keep the CNB vigilant. Although this was due to higher food prices, the current core inflation rate remains slightly above the inflation target, which will probably be evident next spring. Although selected plans of the new coalition will help to further tame price rises, others are more likely to maintain an inflationary undercurrent in the economy.
Softer September inflation gives CNB room to wait for government formation
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Lower food prices, a seasonal decline in holiday prices and a slight catch-up in education prices contributed to September's more moderate consumer price growth of 2.3%, which, however, reminds us of possible price catch-up in other segments next year as well (see Chart 4).
September's more pronounced slowdown in inflation brings relief after a mildly inflationary general election result
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The more pronounced slowdown in September consumer price growth to 2.3% year on year reflects a decline in most components of the consumer basket. There are three messages for the CNB that are likely to leave the CNB's communication unchanged, i.e. open to all interest rate possibilities.