CBA Forecast

The domestic economy will grow by 2% this year. The CBA forecasting panel worsened the outlook due to the events in Hormuz. The forecast from the first quarter predicted growth of 2.6%. Consumer inflation should accelerate towards the upper limit of the inflation target at the end of this year.

According to the CBA's forecasting panel, Czech economic growth will slow to 2% this year. The worsening outlook is mainly related to the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Consumer inflation is expected to accelerate towards the upper boundary of the inflation target at the end of this year, with average growth of 2.5% this year.

May 2026: Economic growth slowing to 2% with risks on many fronts, 2.4% growth next year

The CBA's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.6% this year and to maintain the same pace in 2027. Inflation should slow to 1.7% this year and then accelerate to 2.3% next year. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.6% this year and should maintain the same pace next year, according to the CBA forecasting panel. Inflation should slow to 1.7% on average in 2026 and accelerate slightly again to 2.3% in 2027. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

February 2026: Growth outlook steady at 2.6% with low price growth

The Czech Banking Association's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.5% this year. A slight slowdown to 2.2% will come in 2026. Next year will also see a positive recovery in investment activity, also thanks to the return of stronger corporate lending activity in recent months.

The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.5% this year, according to the CBA's forecasting panel, with a slight slowdown of a more technical nature to 2.2% next year. The improved outlook for this year and next reflects the resilience of the Czech economy, supported by higher wage growth, government investment, de-escalation of customs disputes and, to some extent, the expected easing of fiscal policy. The recovery in investment activity will also be positive next year, also thanks to the return of stronger corporate lending activity in recent months.

November 2025: economy on track for stronger 2.5% growth despite tariff shocks

The Czech Banking Association's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.1% this year. The estimate is more optimistic than the May forecast, which predicted only 1.7% for this year. The improvement comes despite the higher 15% US tariffs, which are expected to remain in place in 2026.

The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.1% this year, while next year it should be a tenth less. The forecast is thus more optimistic than the May forecast, which only counted on 1.7% for this year. The improvement comes despite the higher 15% US tariffs, which are expected to remain in place in 2026.

August 2025: the CBA improved its outlook for the Czech economy. 2.1% growth confirms resilience and slightly higher inflation leads to a more cautious CNB

The Czech Banking Association has downgraded its growth outlook for the domestic economy this year to 1.7%. The February macroeconomic forecast had expected growth of 2.1%. The negative impact of the trade wars and the uncertainty associated with them contributed significantly to the lower outlook. Next year, the growth rate should accelerate slightly to 2.0%.

The Czech economy will grow more slowly this year, by 1.7%. This is expected by the CBA macroeconomic forecast. The negative impact of trade wars and the uncertainty associated with them have significantly contributed to the worse outlook. Next year, the growth rate should accelerate slightly to 2.0%.

May 2025: the CBA has downgraded the outlook for the Czech economy. It will grow by 1.7% this year, 2% next year. Economists predict 12% US tariffs

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

The Czech economy will grow by 2.1% this year. According to the CBA's macroeconomic forecast. The outlook is significantly affected by the uncertainty of trade wars. In the baseline scenario, we expect consumer prices to grow by a similar annual rate of 2.4% this year as last year, with only a slight slowdown to 2.2% in 2026.

The domestic economy will grow by 2.1% this year, according to the CBA's macroeconomic forecast. The outlook is significantly affected by uncertainty about the onset of trade wars. In the baseline scenario, we expect consumer prices to grow by a similar annual rate of 2.4% this year as last year, with only a slight slowdown to 2.2% in 2026. The CNB's interest rates are likely to continue to fall gradually, with the two-week repo rate reaching 3.25% this year and 3% next year.

February 2025: the CBA worsened the economic outlook

The domestic economy would grow by 1% year on year this year, similar to the value expected in the previous forecast. GDP is forecast to accelerate by 2.3% next year. Compared to the previous forecast, the estimate for 2025 has been revised downwards by almost half a percentage point, mainly due to weaker developments abroad.

The Czech economy will grow by 1% year-on-year this year, with GDP forecast to accelerate by 2.3% next year. Compared to the previous forecast, the estimate for 2025 has been revised downwards by almost half a percentage point, mainly due to weaker developments abroad.

November 2024: Domestic economic growth will be moderate this year, targets just above 2% next year, but slower than expected in the August forecast

The domestic economy will grow more slowly than expected this year. Annual growth will be 0.9%, down half a percentage point from the May forecast. The weaker development is linked to the unfavourable outlook for foreign demand.

The domestic economy will grow more slowly than expected this year. Annual growth will be 0.9%, down half a percentage point from the May forecast. The weaker development is linked to the unfavourable outlook for foreign demand. In the next episode, we will interview economist Jaromír Šindel.

August 2024: Growth of the domestic economy will be weaker this year, the optimistic expectations from the previous forecast have not been met

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

May 2024: This year's recovery will be gradual, growth should accelerate next year, inflation will remain at the central bank's 2% target this year and next

February 2024: The domestic economy will recover slowly this year. Growth expected to be only 1.2%, inflation close to central bank's target