The domestic economy will grow more slowly than expected this year. Annual growth will be 0.9%, down half a percentage point from the May forecast. The weaker development is linked to the unfavourable outlook for foreign demand.
CBA Forecast
The CBA forecast is produced each quarter as a consensus forecast of selected domestic banks. A basic summary of the current CBA forecast in several figures and comments is outlined below, detailed information can be found in the "CBA Forecast" section.
GDP
0
% yoy
year 2024
Domestic economy to grow only slightly by 0.9% this year, 2.7% next year
Unemployment
0
%
average in 2024
The labour market remains in good shape, although slight signs of cooling can already be seen. However, the share of unemployed persons will increase only slightly this year.
Average wages
0
%
average in 2024
Average wages are expected to rise by 6.8% this year and real wages will increase again after two years by 4.5%
Inflation
0
%
average in 2024
Average inflation is expected to reach 2.3% this year and 2.2% next year. Risks remain in food and services prices
CNB 2-week repo rate
0
%
end of 2024
The forecast expects the CNB to continue cutting rates, which should be below the 4% level at the end of this year and near the 3.5% level at the end of 2025.
The Crown
0
CZK/€
end of 2024
The koruna will average above CZK 25 per euro this year, and should be slightly below it at the end of the year and at 24.5 CZK per euro at the end of next year
The domestic economy will grow more slowly than expected this year. Annual growth will be 0.9%, down half a percentage point from the May forecast. The weaker development is linked to the unfavourable outlook for foreign demand. In the next episode, we will interview economist Jaromír Šindel.
August 2024: Growth of the domestic economy will be weaker this year, the optimistic expectations from the previous forecast have not been met
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
May 2024: This year's recovery will be gradual, growth should accelerate next year, inflation will remain at the central bank's 2% target this year and next
February 2024: The domestic economy will recover slowly this year. Growth expected to be only 1.2%, inflation close to central bank's target