The Czech Banking Association's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.5% this year. A slight slowdown to 2.2% will come in 2026. Next year will also see a positive recovery in investment activity, also thanks to the return of stronger corporate lending activity in recent months.
CBA Forecast
The CBA forecast is produced each quarter as a consensus forecast of selected domestic banks. A basic summary of the current CBA forecast in several figures and comments is outlined below, detailed information can be found in the "CBA Forecast" section.
GDP
0
% yoy
year 2025 | 2026
The domestic economy is expected to slow quarter-on-quarter growth to 0.4% in late 2025, after an average gain of 0.6% so far. For 2026, we expect it to add 0.62% on average quarter-on-quarter and thus actually grow by about 2.5% during the year. In 2024, Czech GDP will have grown by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter on average.
Unemployment
0
%
year 2025 | 2026
The registered unemployment rate had already climbed to 4.7% in October 2025 on a seasonally adjusted basis. But the continued solid momentum of the economy should stabilise unemployment in 2026 and continue to fall slightly in 2027, but remain above this year's average.
Average wages
0
%
year 2025 | 2026
Growth in average nominal wages is expected to slow to 5.6% year-on-year in 2026, after a probably surprising 7.2% increase in 2025, which repeated the same growth of the previous year. With little change in price dynamics, we expect stronger real wage growth: 3.3% in 2026 after a 4.6% improvement in 2025.
Inflation
0
% yoy
year 2025 | 2026
Stronger wage growth is reflected in a slightly higher outlook for core inflation at 2.5% next year, partly offset by the stronger koruna and the expected unchanged central bank interest rate. However, headline consumer inflation is expected to slow to an unchanged 2.2% yoy next year from 2.5% this year, and we expect it to accelerate slightly to 2.3% in 2027.
CNB 2-week repo rate
0
%
end of 2025
However, stronger wage growth together with slightly higher core inflation dynamics are reflected in the outlook for the CNB's stable interest rate at 3.50%. And it is expected to remain at half its 2022-2023 peak level during 2027.
The Crown
0
CZK/€
end of 2025
The stronger koruna in the forecast reflects a combination of the better performance of the Czech economy, the current level of the koruna exchange rate and the weaker US dollar. The outlook for the interest rate differential remains broadly unchanged.
CBA forecast: CNB interest rate
% (average values, but forecast for the end of the period)
3.50
%
2025
The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.5% this year, according to the CBA's forecasting panel, with a slight slowdown of a more technical nature to 2.2% next year. The improved outlook for this year and next reflects the resilience of the Czech economy, supported by higher wage growth, government investment, de-escalation of customs disputes and, to some extent, the expected easing of fiscal policy. The recovery in investment activity will also be positive next year, also thanks to the return of stronger corporate lending activity in recent months.
November 2025: economy on track for stronger 2.5% growth despite tariff shocks
The Czech Banking Association's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.1% this year. The estimate is more optimistic than the May forecast, which predicted only 1.7% for this year. The improvement comes despite the higher 15% US tariffs, which are expected to remain in place in 2026.
The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.1% this year, while next year it should be a tenth less. The forecast is thus more optimistic than the May forecast, which only counted on 1.7% for this year. The improvement comes despite the higher 15% US tariffs, which are expected to remain in place in 2026.
August 2025: the CBA improved its outlook for the Czech economy. 2.1% growth confirms resilience and slightly higher inflation leads to a more cautious CNB
The Czech Banking Association has downgraded its growth outlook for the domestic economy this year to 1.7%. The February macroeconomic forecast had expected growth of 2.1%. The negative impact of the trade wars and the uncertainty associated with them contributed significantly to the lower outlook. Next year, the growth rate should accelerate slightly to 2.0%.
The Czech economy will grow more slowly this year, by 1.7%. This is expected by the CBA macroeconomic forecast. The negative impact of trade wars and the uncertainty associated with them have significantly contributed to the worse outlook. Next year, the growth rate should accelerate slightly to 2.0%.
May 2025: the CBA has downgraded the outlook for the Czech economy. It will grow by 1.7% this year, 2% next year. Economists predict 12% US tariffs
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
The Czech economy will grow by 2.1% this year. According to the CBA's macroeconomic forecast. The outlook is significantly affected by the uncertainty of trade wars. In the baseline scenario, we expect consumer prices to grow by a similar annual rate of 2.4% this year as last year, with only a slight slowdown to 2.2% in 2026.
The domestic economy will grow by 2.1% this year, according to the CBA's macroeconomic forecast. The outlook is significantly affected by uncertainty about the onset of trade wars. In the baseline scenario, we expect consumer prices to grow by a similar annual rate of 2.4% this year as last year, with only a slight slowdown to 2.2% in 2026. The CNB's interest rates are likely to continue to fall gradually, with the two-week repo rate reaching 3.25% this year and 3% next year.
February 2025: the CBA worsened the economic outlook
The domestic economy would grow by 1% year on year this year, similar to the value expected in the previous forecast. GDP is forecast to accelerate by 2.3% next year. Compared to the previous forecast, the estimate for 2025 has been revised downwards by almost half a percentage point, mainly due to weaker developments abroad.
The Czech economy will grow by 1% year-on-year this year, with GDP forecast to accelerate by 2.3% next year. Compared to the previous forecast, the estimate for 2025 has been revised downwards by almost half a percentage point, mainly due to weaker developments abroad.
November 2024: Domestic economic growth will be moderate this year, targets just above 2% next year, but slower than expected in the August forecast
The domestic economy will grow more slowly than expected this year. Annual growth will be 0.9%, down half a percentage point from the May forecast. The weaker development is linked to the unfavourable outlook for foreign demand.
The domestic economy will grow more slowly than expected this year. Annual growth will be 0.9%, down half a percentage point from the May forecast. The weaker development is linked to the unfavourable outlook for foreign demand. In the next episode, we will interview economist Jaromír Šindel.
August 2024: Growth of the domestic economy will be weaker this year, the optimistic expectations from the previous forecast have not been met
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
May 2024: This year's recovery will be gradual, growth should accelerate next year, inflation will remain at the central bank's 2% target this year and next
February 2024: The domestic economy will recover slowly this year. Growth expected to be only 1.2%, inflation close to central bank's target