Banking sector

Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The central bank did not surprise by unanimously leaving interest rates unchanged, i.e. with the two-week repo rate at 3.50%, for the fifth meeting in a row after a 25bp cut in May. Although the Board did not change its view of the risks and uncertainties surrounding the CNB's November forecast, it did assess the risks to inflation as balanced, given the risks in financial markets and the removal of the renewable energy levy, following November's upside assessment.

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: According to the Czech Statistical Office, realised prices of older flats in the Czech Republic rose by 3.7% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, which exceeds income growth for the seventh quarter already and maintains the too brisk annual pace of property prices at around 16%. Higher property prices are also making their way into the CNB's macroprudential capital policy settings, with discussion over the (arguably unscary) possible introduction of a sectoral systemic buffer, as well as less intuitive discussions over the role of investment activity by non-financial corporates in setting the countercyclical capital buffer.

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The Central Bank, through stricter requirements in the form of recommendations for investment mortgages, has decided to make a modest effort to correct mortgage demand on the real estate market, which remains very tight in terms of prices, mainly due to the supply side - see the drop in building permits.

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The CNB is waiting for a new impulse. The CNB is waiting for the new government to announce its plans, both from the data and from future analysis of the new government's upcoming plans. The CNB's own outlook, with more moderate consumer price growth at the end of the year and a stronger economy in real terms in Q3, opens up the possibility of more hawkish communication in the rest of the year. But I believe the CNB will wait to reassess its communication until the contours of the new government's policy are clearer.

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist at the CBA: While the CNB unsurprisingly left interest rates unchanged with the two-week repo rate at 3.5%, the Board's statement on the monetary policy settings, however, was more surprising in its less hawkish tone, leaving open all possibilities for future monetary policy settings.

Commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Higher-than-expected wage growth will be the main, but not the only, reason for keeping the interest rate at 3.5% at the CNB's September meeting and for the intensification of the hawkish tone in the communication. The latter may indeed indicate a further upward movement in the interest rate, but rather in an unspecified distant horizon. A stronger koruna or tighter monetary policy through the longer end of the yield curve is unlikely to lead the CNB to a dovish mindset.

Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA (adjusted for published data on core inflation from the CNB and registered unemployment data, 18:00 8 August)

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association

Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association

The CNB Bank Board left interest rates unchanged in March.

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Commentary by Miroslav Zámečník, Chief Advisor of the Czech Banking Association

Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA

Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA