CBA Forecast: Consumer Prices (Inflation)

2.0 % year-over-year
2026 Forecast
2.6 % year-over-year
2027 Forecast

Commentary by the Czech Bar Association

August ČBA Forecast: Average inflation is expected to fall from 2.5% in 2025 to 2.0% this year, mainly due to favorable food price trends and the transfer of the renewable energy surcharge to the government; however, it is expected to rise to 2.6% in 2027. Core inflation remains elevated at 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2027.
Risks to the forecast: Risks are skewed to the upside due to a possible reversal in food prices, higher energy costs, and persistent domestic price pressures; for 2027, half of the forecasts range between 2.6% and 2.9%.
Risk update based on new data: The acceleration in consumer price growth in September and the composition of that growth pose a risk of higher inflation than the ČBA’s forecast of 2.6% year-over-year growth next year, following this year’s 2%. Higher oil and energy prices, along with continued strong growth in core inflation, are keeping upward pressure on consumer price growth above the midpoint of the CNB’s inflation target.

CBA Forecast: Consumer Prices (Inflation)

(year-over-year figures, % yoy)

CBA Monitor
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Source of primary data

Czech Statistical Office, Czech Banking Association

Category

Forecast

Data Frequency

annual

Note

"Actual values" and "ČBA forecast" represent the full-year average, and "actual YTD data" is the year-to-date average for the current year.
Data not adjusted for variations in the number of business days or seasonal effects.
The "mid-range of 25–75% of forecasts," marked by dashes, represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentiles of all forecasts in the ČBA consensus.

Related Charts

Rise in Consumer Prices (Inflation)
Monthly Changes in Consumer Prices (Inflation)

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Comments

Consumer inflation in August picked up slightly amid solid retail sales growth in July
Jaromír Šindel 04. 09. 2026

Consumer prices rose by 0.3% month-over-month in August, and year-over-year inflation accelerated to 1.9%. The higher rate of growth was driven mainly by fuel prices, while food prices had the opposite effect. According to preliminary estimates, core price pressures eased slightly. At the same time, July retail sales (excluding autos) returned to stronger figures, reflecting a sustained strong trend in retail and services. Inflation, adjusted for wage growth, brings some relief to the central bank, but momentum in retail sales and wages will likely keep the CNB in hawkish mode.

19. 08. 2026

August 2026: The Czech economy continues to grow steadily, but core inflation pressures will keep interest rates higher

25. 05. 2026

The domestic economy will grow by 2% this year. The CBA forecasting panel worsened the outlook due to the events in Hormuz. The forecast from the first quarter predicted growth of 2.6%. Consumer inflation should accelerate towards the upper limit of the inflation target at the end of this year.

20. 05. 2026

May 2026: Economic growth slowing to 2% with risks on many fronts, 2.4% growth next year

April inflation accelerated by fuel, but also due to core price pressures
Jaromír Šindel 06. 05. 2026

April consumer prices accelerated to 2.5% year-on-year and the story behind the inflation numbers is very similar to March. The acceleration mainly reflects higher fuel prices, but higher core demand inflation and, more recently, higher alcohol and tobacco prices are also creeping in. While energy and food prices still dampened the acceleration. The current dynamics and the Iranian conflict pose a risk of higher inflation for this year, and for the outlook for next year. While risks to the forecast remain volatile due to the uncertainty associated with the Iranian conflict, even if it calms down, higher core inflation represents a hawkish signal for the CNB in the form of a higher interest rate.

Pavel Sobíšek 17. 02. 2026

The CBA's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.6% this year and to maintain the same pace in 2027. Inflation should slow to 1.7% this year and then accelerate to 2.3% next year. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jan Vejmělek 12. 02. 2026

The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.6% this year and should maintain the same pace next year, according to the CBA forecasting panel. Inflation should slow to 1.7% on average in 2026 and accelerate slightly again to 2.3% in 2027. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jaromír Šindel 11. 02. 2026

February 2026: Growth outlook steady at 2.6% with low price growth