CBA Forecast: Consumer Prices (Inflation)

2.5 % year-over-year
2025 Forecast
2.7 % year-over-year
2026 Forecast

Commentary by the Czech Bar Association

The combination of stronger economic and wage growth, along with a likely looser fiscal policy, is unfolding against the backdrop of the inflation outlook. This outlook, in turn, is dominated by the decline in food prices since the end of last year and the reallocation of POZE funds to the state budget. Headline consumer inflation should thus slow to 1.7% year-over-year this year from this year’s 2.5%, and in 2027 we expect it to accelerate slightly to 2.3%, though there is a potential risk of slower growth due to the elimination of license fees. However, for core inflation, we expect a more moderate slowdown from last year’s 2.7% to 2.5% this year and 2.3% in 2027.

CBA Forecast: Consumer Prices (Inflation)

(year-over-year figures, % yoy)

CBA Monitor
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Source of primary data

Czech Statistical Office, Czech Banking Association

Category

Forecast

Data Frequency

annual

Note

"Actual values" and "ČBA forecast" represent the full-year average, and "actual YTD data" is the year-to-date average for the current year.
Data not adjusted for variations in the number of business days or seasonal factors.
The "mid-range of 25–75% of forecasts," marked by dashes, represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentiles of all forecasts in the ČBA consensus.

Related Charts

Rise in Consumer Prices (Inflation)
Monthly Changes in Consumer Prices (Inflation)

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Comments

25. 05. 2026

The domestic economy will grow by 2% this year. The CBA forecasting panel worsened the outlook due to the events in Hormuz. The forecast from the first quarter predicted growth of 2.6%. Consumer inflation should accelerate towards the upper limit of the inflation target at the end of this year.

20. 05. 2026

May 2026: Economic growth slowing to 2% with risks on many fronts, 2.4% growth next year

April inflation accelerated by fuel, but also due to core price pressures
Jaromír Šindel 06. 05. 2026

April consumer prices accelerated to 2.5% year-on-year and the story behind the inflation numbers is very similar to March. The acceleration mainly reflects higher fuel prices, but higher core demand inflation and, more recently, higher alcohol and tobacco prices are also creeping in. While energy and food prices still dampened the acceleration. The current dynamics and the Iranian conflict pose a risk of higher inflation for this year, and for the outlook for next year. While risks to the forecast remain volatile due to the uncertainty associated with the Iranian conflict, even if it calms down, higher core inflation represents a hawkish signal for the CNB in the form of a higher interest rate.

Pavel Sobíšek 17. 02. 2026

The CBA's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.6% this year and to maintain the same pace in 2027. Inflation should slow to 1.7% this year and then accelerate to 2.3% next year. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jan Vejmělek 12. 02. 2026

The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.6% this year and should maintain the same pace next year, according to the CBA forecasting panel. Inflation should slow to 1.7% on average in 2026 and accelerate slightly again to 2.3% in 2027. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jaromír Šindel 11. 02. 2026

February 2026: Growth outlook steady at 2.6% with low price growth