The combination of stronger economic and wage growth, together with probably looser fiscal policy, is only partly reflected in the inflation outlook. Stronger wage growth is reflected in a slightly higher outlook for core inflation at 2.5% next year, partly offset by the stronger koruna and the expected unchanged central bank interest rate. However, headline consumer inflation is expected to slow to an unchanged 2.2% yoy next year from 2.5% this year, and we expect it to accelerate slightly to 2.3% in 2027.
Source of primary data
CZSO, CBA
Note
"Actual" and "CBA forecast" represent the full-year average and "actual ytd" is the average for the year to date. Data unadjusted for working day differences and seasonal effects. The dashed line 'middle band of 25-75% of forecasts' represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentile of all forecasts in the CBA consensus.