CBA forecast: consumer prices (inflation)

2.5 % yoy
forecast 2025
2.7 % yoy
forecast 2026

CBA Commentary

May CBA Forecast: the deteriorated outlook takes place against the backdrop of an expected 0.8 percentage point increase in the rate of consumer inflation to 2.5% this year, followed by a 2.7% rise in 2027.The forecast foresees the gradual pass-through of the second-round effects of higher energy and commodity prices into food prices and other components of the consumer basket at the turn of this year and next year. \Consumer price growth of 1.9% yoy during January-May 2026 is below the CBA forecast. It is thus below the CBA's forecast (3%) for the end of the year for now.

CBA forecast: consumer prices (inflation)

(annual values, % yoy)

CBA Monitor
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Source of primary data

CZSO, CBA

Category

Forecast

Data frequency

annual

Note

"Actual" and "CBA forecast" represent the full-year average and "actual ytd" is the average for the year to date.
Data unadjusted for working day differences and seasonal effects.
The dashed line 'middle band of 25-75% of forecasts' represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentile of all forecasts in the CBA consensus.

Related Charts

Consumer price inflation (inflation)
Monthly consumer price inflation (inflation)

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Comments

25. 05. 2026

The domestic economy will grow by 2% this year. The CBA forecasting panel worsened the outlook due to the events in Hormuz. The forecast from the first quarter predicted growth of 2.6%. Consumer inflation should accelerate towards the upper limit of the inflation target at the end of this year.

20. 05. 2026

May 2026: Economic growth slowing to 2% with risks on many fronts, 2.4% growth next year

April inflation accelerated by fuel, but also due to core price pressures
Jaromír Šindel 06. 05. 2026

April consumer prices accelerated to 2.5% year-on-year and the story behind the inflation numbers is very similar to March. The acceleration mainly reflects higher fuel prices, but higher core demand inflation and, more recently, higher alcohol and tobacco prices are also creeping in. While energy and food prices still dampened the acceleration. The current dynamics and the Iranian conflict pose a risk of higher inflation for this year, and for the outlook for next year. While risks to the forecast remain volatile due to the uncertainty associated with the Iranian conflict, even if it calms down, higher core inflation represents a hawkish signal for the CNB in the form of a higher interest rate.

Pavel Sobíšek 17. 02. 2026

The CBA's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.6% this year and to maintain the same pace in 2027. Inflation should slow to 1.7% this year and then accelerate to 2.3% next year. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jan Vejmělek 12. 02. 2026

The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.6% this year and should maintain the same pace next year, according to the CBA forecasting panel. Inflation should slow to 1.7% on average in 2026 and accelerate slightly again to 2.3% in 2027. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jaromír Šindel 11. 02. 2026

February 2026: Growth outlook steady at 2.6% with low price growth