Confidence Indicators | ČBA Monitor

Trust indicators

2.6 % yoy

Total annual change

-1.7 %

Month-on-month change in total

CBA Commentary

According to the CZSO's April economic sentiment survey, confidence in the Czech economy is above its long-term average after a month-on-month deterioration. Sentiment is below last month's value but remains above the level of the previous three months. Compared to last year's value, it is in an improved situation.
Individual sectors stand as follows relative to the long-term average: * industry, trade below long-term averages, * while households, services, construction sectors above long-term averages. \ April's month-on-month deterioration in confidence in the economy mainly reflected weaker confidence in the industry, household, trade sectors, while a shift to better sentiment in the services, construction sectors partly offset this. Sectoral dynamics show April household sentiment below last month (and below the previous three months) but above last year's level; industry sentiment worse than last month (but above the previous three-month average) but better than last year; in services, above last month (and above the previous three months) and better than a year ago; in trade, worse than last month (and below the previous three-month average) and better than last year; and in construction, above last month (and above the previous three months) but below last year. \More in the `Comments' section of the CBA Monitor: https://www.cbamonitor.cz/kategorie/ekonomika

Trust indicators

indices, long-term average = 100

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Source of primary data

CSO

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Energy shock divides the mood in the economy

Jaromír Šindel 24. 04. 2026

April sentiment already reflects the impact of the Iranian conflict on the Czech economy more strongly, but unevenly across sectors. Sentiment deteriorated as expected in industry, households and retail trade, while services dampened the overall deterioration thanks to stronger demand and construction. Price expectations continued to rise in industry, households and construction, while retail sales remained close to the long-term average and services corrected slightly after the previous increase. Meanwhile, labour market effects remain limited even in the harder-hit sectors and, in fact, the overall slightly worse sentiment still does not provide an immediate signal for worse growth expectations for the economy.

March brought some conflicting data for the CNB, but the hawkish reaction to the energy shock is evident

Jaromír Šindel 30. 03. 2026

The Czech economy accelerated at the end of last year and maintained its inflationary bias due to strong household consumption and strong wage growth unsupported by productivity. However, the central bank's New Year communication hinted at a possible interest rate cut. However, this rhetoric has been changed by the recent energy shock. For the central bank, the dynamics of core inflation will be key in the coming months, but also the pass-through of higher oil and gas prices to other price segments in the economy. March price expectations rose, but their April perception will be more guiding for the central bank.

January stability in economic sentiment hides four clearer signals for growth and inflation

27. 01. 2026

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: January show stable economic sentiment, but industry continues to be plagued by weak demand with negative consequences for investment. On the other hand, consumer purchasing plans remain full of optimism, also thanks to both lower price expectations, which are dampened by industry but not services, and better expectations on the labour market, where the service sector, which is lacking more workers, is making a positive contribution. Thus, it looks like continued solid economic growth this year with noticeably lower headline inflation. This combination is likely to shift the discussion at the CNB from rate stability or growth to rate stability or a possible decline, which is, however, not certain given the ongoing "services inflation" and the change in fiscal policy settings.

Continued December downturn in sentiment, but not in households' purchase plans

23. 12. 2025

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The deterioration in economic sentiment in December does not yet represent a turning point for the outlook for the Czech economic recovery, which anticipates a deterioration in dynamics at the end of the year 2025. Household consumption plans remain resilient, while industry and the labour market are sending rather cautious signals, which poses a risk to the expected recovery in investment activity and the early stabilisation of rising registered unemployment. The outlook for lower administered energy prices supports falling price expectations, but persistent pressures in construction and services continue to dampen disinflationary optimism, sending a neutral rather than dovish message to the central bank.

November sentiment slightly worse on average, but with significant movements in detail

24. 11. 2025

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: November's confidence in the Czech economy weakened slightly, but still suggests continued growth. However, there are significant differences across sectors, reflecting the looming change in economic policy after the elections. Households remain visibly more optimistic, thanks to rapidly rising wages and perhaps in response to the new government's plans, while industry is returning to earlier weakness. Services are again reporting rising price expectations, keeping the central bank in hawkish mode.

October industrial sentiment awakening with hawkish price signals

24. 10. 2025

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Stronger sentiment in October suggests a return to stronger GDP growth for the end of this year after a probably slightly worse result in Q3. Higher price expectations may delay the return of core inflation to the target.