Trust indicators

Month-on-month change in total

Trust indicators

indices, long-term average = 100
CBA Commentary
According to the CZSO's December economic sentiment survey, confidence in the Czech economy is holding around its long-term average after a month-on-month deterioration. Its level is therefore below last month's value and is moving below the level of the previous three months. It is at an improved level compared to last year's value.
The individual sectors stand as follows in relation to the long-term average: * industry, trade below long-term averages, * while households, services, construction sectors above long-term averages.
December's month-on-month deterioration in confidence in the economy mainly reflected the industry, services, households, trade sectors, while a shift to better sentiment in the construction sectors partly offset this. Sectoral dynamics show December household sentiment below last month's level (but above the previous three months) but above last year's level; industry worse than last month (and below the previous three-month average) but better than last year; in services, below last month (and below the previous three months) and worse than a year ago; in trade, worse than last month (and below the previous three-month average) and better than last year; and in construction, above last month (but below the previous three months) and above last year. \More in the 'Comments' section of the CBA Monitor: https://www.cbamonitor.cz/kategorie/ekonomika
Source of primary data
CSO
Note
Data adjusted for seasonal effects. For more details on the methodology, see https://csu.gov.cz/konjunkturalni_pruzkum
Category
Economics
Data frequency
Monthly
Comments
Continued December downturn in sentiment, but not in households' purchase plans
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The deterioration in economic sentiment in December does not yet represent a turning point for the outlook for the Czech economic recovery, which anticipates a deterioration in dynamics at the end of the year 2025. Household consumption plans remain resilient, while industry and the labour market are sending rather cautious signals, which poses a risk to the expected recovery in investment activity and the early stabilisation of rising registered unemployment. The outlook for lower administered energy prices supports falling price expectations, but persistent pressures in construction and services continue to dampen disinflationary optimism, sending a neutral rather than dovish message to the central bank.
November sentiment slightly worse on average, but with significant movements in detail
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: November's confidence in the Czech economy weakened slightly, but still suggests continued growth. However, there are significant differences across sectors, reflecting the looming change in economic policy after the elections. Households remain visibly more optimistic, thanks to rapidly rising wages and perhaps in response to the new government's plans, while industry is returning to earlier weakness. Services are again reporting rising price expectations, keeping the central bank in hawkish mode.
October industrial sentiment awakening with hawkish price signals
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Stronger sentiment in October suggests a return to stronger GDP growth for the end of this year after a probably slightly worse result in Q3. Higher price expectations may delay the return of core inflation to the target.
July sentiment brings slightly worse signal for the economy and the CNB
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
June sentiment brings mostly encouraging news for growth, labour market and core inflation
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA