We estimate that the seasonally adjusted registered unemployment rate will rise to 4.36% in May 2025 from 4.28% a month earlier. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate reached 4.2% in May, down 0.1% point from the previous month. Thus, the month-on-month change in the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate in May reflects its seasonal decline despite a slight cyclical deterioration in unemployment.
On a year-over-year basis, the May unemployment rate is 0.6% point above its May 2024 level of 3.6%.
In 2024, the jobless rate reached 3.8%, and its average so far this year is at 4.2%. Compared with the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the jobless rate is thus 1.1% point above the 3.3% level of Q1 2022 and is 1.6% point higher than the pre-invasion average of 2.8% in 2019. Since 2005, the share of registered unemployed according to our seasonal estimate reached its lowest level of 2.7% in June 2019, while its highest level of 8% comes from November 2013.
A different concept of the CSO survey sample unemployment rate reached 2.7% in April 2025 in the form of a trendcycle (more seasonally adjusted) compared to 2.7% in the previous month or 2.8% a year ago. In 2024, the average general unemployment rate was 2.8%, according to the CSO survey, and so far this year it has averaged 2.7%. This sample unemployment rate reached its lowest since 1993 at 2% in February 2019 and its highest at 9.3% in January 2000.

CSU (selection). Labour Office (registration)

The general unemployment rate from the CSO is sampled against a sample of households in dwellings and measured against the labour force (the sum of employed and unemployed), while the unemployment rate from the Labour Office measures the number of registered job seekers aged 15-64 against the total population aged 15-64. \From May 2025, the CSO publishes the unemployment rate in a "trendcycle" format instead of the previously published seasonally adjusted series. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes non-seasonally adjusted data and the seasonal adjustment is estimated by the CBA.

Economics

Monthly

Wage dynamics