Unemployment

4.72 % (11-2025)

Share of unemployed persons (registration, sa)

3.20 % (10-2025)

General unemployment rate (trendcycklus)

Unemployment

(%)

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CBA Commentary

We estimate that the seasonally adjusted registered unemployment rate will rise to 4.72% in November 2025 from 4.7% a month earlier. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate reached 4.6% in November, up 0% points from the previous month. Thus, the month-on-month change in the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate in November reflects its seasonal decline despite a slight cyclical deterioration in unemployment.
On a year-over-year basis, November's unemployment rate is 0.7% points above its November 2024 level of 3.9%.
In 2024, the unemployment rate reached 3.8% and its average for this year so far is 4.4%. Relative to the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the share of the unemployed is thus 1.4% points above its 3.3% level in Q1 2022 and 1.9% points higher than its pre-election average of 2.8% in 2019. Since 2005, our seasonal estimate of the share of registered unemployed reached its lowest level of 2.7% in January 2020, while its highest level of 8% comes from January 2014. \The CSO survey's different concept of the sample unemployment rate reached 3.2% in October 2025 as a trendcycle (more seasonally adjusted) compared to 3.2% in the previous month or 2.8% a year ago. In 2024, this average general unemployment rate according to the CSO survey was 2.8% and so far this year it has averaged 3%. This sample unemployment rate reached its lowest since 1993 at 2% in February 2019 and its highest since January 2000 at 9.3%.

Source of primary data

CSU (selection). Labour Office (registration)

Note

The general unemployment rate from the CSO is sampled against a sample of households in dwellings and measured against the labour force (the sum of employed and unemployed), while the unemployment rate from the Labour Office measures the number of registered job seekers aged 15-64 against the total population aged 15-64. \From May 2025, the CSO publishes the unemployment rate in a "trendcycle" format instead of the previously published seasonally adjusted series. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes non-seasonally adjusted data and the seasonal adjustment is estimated by the CBA.

Category

Economics

Data frequency

Monthly

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Comments

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5 min. reading

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: November consumer price growth did not slow to 2.1% year-on-year only thanks to volatile food prices, which were lower in November. The slowdown in core inflation to 2.6% was probably also due to lower prices for holidays, clothing, household furnishings, as well as lower prices in healthcare and energy. This, and November's move closer to the price inflation target for both headline and core inflation, eases hawkish pressures on the central bank. However, the continued brisk momentum in rent and food and other service prices will not allow the central bank to contemplate an interest rate cut.

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October consumer inflation at 2.5% and continued rise in unemployment keep CNB on tenterhooks

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5 min. reading

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: October consumer inflation not only confirmed a more pronounced shock from higher food prices, but also showed higher prices of transport services and prices of means of transport as part of core inflation. In the longer term, it is worth noting that imputed rental prices have already caught up with the previous inflation shock, and the same has been true for a few months for holiday prices. Thus, the higher October inflation and unemployment data will not help the central bank or the market resolve its dilemma of the next interest rate move.

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