Unemployment

4.93 % (04-2026)

Share of unemployed persons (registration, sa)

3.30 % (03-2026)

General unemployment rate (trendcycklus)

CBA Commentary

We estimate that the seasonally adjusted registered unemployment rate will rise to 4.93% in April 2026 from 4.91% a month earlier. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate reached 4.9% in April, down 0.1% point from the previous month. Thus, the month-on-month change in the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate in April reflects its seasonal decline despite a slight cyclical deterioration in unemployment.
On a year-over-year basis, the April unemployment rate is 0.6% point above its April 2025 level of 4.3%.
In 2025, the jobless rate reached 4.4%, and its average so far this year is at 4.9%. Compared to the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the jobless rate is thus 1.6% point above the 3.3% level of Q1 2022 and is 2.1% points higher than the pre-invasion average of 2.8% in 2019. Since 2005, the share of registered unemployed according to our seasonal estimate reached its lowest level of 2.7% in January 2020, while its highest level of 8% comes from January 2014.
A different concept of the CSO survey sample unemployment rate reached 3.3% in March 2026 in the form of a trendcycle (more seasonally adjusted) compared to 3.3% in the previous month or 2.8% a year ago. In 2025, the average general unemployment rate according to the CSO survey was 3% and so far this year it has averaged 3.3%. This sample unemployment rate reached its lowest since 1993 at 2% in February 2019 and its highest at 9.3% in January 2000.

Unemployment

(%)

CBA Monitor

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Source of primary data

CSU (selection). Labour Office (registration)

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Slight economic slowdown in late 2025 and this year is poised to repeat last year's 2.5% growth

30. 01. 2026

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Economic growth slowed down at the end of last year, but still achieved solid 0.5% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth.The structure of growth has not changed significantly - consumption is dominant, which is probably not true of investment. This is in line with the latest sentiment data. A more positive sign is improving productivity. The outlook for this year is a repeat of last year's 2.5% growth, thanks to a better outlook for real wage growth and a change in fiscal policy. Conversely, weaker external demand, even given industrial sentiment, is likely to be a drag on stronger economic growth.

The Easing of November consumer inflation to 2.1% is not just about food

10. 12. 2025

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: November consumer price growth did not slow to 2.1% year-on-year only thanks to volatile food prices, which were lower in November. The slowdown in core inflation to 2.6% was probably also due to lower prices for holidays, clothing, household furnishings, as well as lower prices in healthcare and energy. This, and November's move closer to the price inflation target for both headline and core inflation, eases hawkish pressures on the central bank. However, the continued brisk momentum in rent and food and other service prices will not allow the central bank to contemplate an interest rate cut.

October consumer inflation at 2.5% and continued rise in unemployment keep CNB on tenterhooks

11. 11. 2025

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: October consumer inflation not only confirmed a more pronounced shock from higher food prices, but also showed higher prices of transport services and prices of means of transport as part of core inflation. In the longer term, it is worth noting that imputed rental prices have already caught up with the previous inflation shock, and the same has been true for a few months for holiday prices. Thus, the higher October inflation and unemployment data will not help the central bank or the market resolve its dilemma of the next interest rate move.

July details of softer headline and core inflation look promising, registered unemployment less so

08. 08. 2025

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA (adjusted for published data on core inflation from the CNB and registered unemployment data, 18:00 8 August)