Unemployment

5.10 % (08-2026)

Unemployment Rate (registered unemployed, SA)

3.39 % (07-2026)

General Unemployment Rate (Trend Cycle)

Commentary by the Czech Bar Association (ČBA)

We estimate that in August 2026, the seasonally adjusted registered unemployment rate rose to 5.1% from 5.02% a month earlier. According to data from the Labor Office, the unadjusted unemployment rate reached 5% in August, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The month-over-month change in the unadjusted unemployment rate in August thus reflects a seasonal increase in unemployment, but also, in part, a cyclical deterioration.
Year-over-year, the August unemployment rate is 0.6 percentage points above the 4.5% level recorded in August 2025.
In 2025, the unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, and this year’s average so far is 5%. Compared to the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the unemployment rate is thus 1.8 percentage points above the 3.3% level from the first quarter of 2022 and is 2.3 percentage points higher than the pre-COVID average of 2.8% in 2019. According to our seasonally adjusted estimate, the registered unemployment rate has reached its lowest level of 2.7% in January 2020 since 2005, while its highest level of 8% was recorded in January 2014.
A different measure of the unemployment rate, based on the Czech Statistical Office (ČSÚ) survey, reached 3.4% in July 2026 as a trend-cycle measure (more thoroughly adjusted for seasonal factors) compared with 3.3% in the previous month and 3.1% a year ago. In 2025, this average general unemployment rate, as reported by the CZSO, stood at 3%, and so far this year, its average level has reached 3.2%. Since 1993, this sample unemployment rate has ranged from a low of 2% in February 2019 to a high of 9.3% in January 2000.

Unemployment

(%)

CBA Monitor

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Source of Primary Data

Czech Statistical Office (selection). Employment Office (registration)

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With core inflation rising by 3 percent, hawkish pressure on the CNB shows no signs of easing

Jaromír Šindel 10. 09. 2026

Inflation in August accelerated slightly to 1.9% year-over-year, but a more significant problem remains beneath the surface: core inflation remains at 3%, and service prices have accelerated again on a month-over-month basis. Labor market data point to a mild pro-inflationary risk rather than a disinflationary one. The CNB may leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% in September and wait impatiently for the November forecast.

The Czech economy picked up slightly, but growth remained below the CNB's forecast

Jaromír Šindel 30. 07. 2026

The Czech economy accelerated its quarter-over-quarter growth to 0.4% in the second quarter, up from 0.2% previously. The result was in line with the pace of growth across the entire eurozone but once again fell short of the CNB’s forecast, which may temper its hawkish stance. GDP growth in the second quarter was driven by household consumption and foreign trade, while investment activity held the economy back. The Czech Banking Association’s (CBA) forecast for the second half of the year anticipates only a slight further acceleration.

Slight economic slowdown in late 2025 and this year is poised to repeat last year's 2.5% growth

30. 01. 2026

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Economic growth slowed down at the end of last year, but still achieved solid 0.5% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth.The structure of growth has not changed significantly - consumption is dominant, which is probably not true of investment. This is in line with the latest sentiment data. A more positive sign is improving productivity. The outlook for this year is a repeat of last year's 2.5% growth, thanks to a better outlook for real wage growth and a change in fiscal policy. Conversely, weaker external demand, even given industrial sentiment, is likely to be a drag on stronger economic growth.

The Easing of November consumer inflation to 2.1% is not just about food

10. 12. 2025

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: November consumer price growth did not slow to 2.1% year-on-year only thanks to volatile food prices, which were lower in November. The slowdown in core inflation to 2.6% was probably also due to lower prices for holidays, clothing, household furnishings, as well as lower prices in healthcare and energy. This, and November's move closer to the price inflation target for both headline and core inflation, eases hawkish pressures on the central bank. However, the continued brisk momentum in rent and food and other service prices will not allow the central bank to contemplate an interest rate cut.

October consumer inflation at 2.5% and continued rise in unemployment keep CNB on tenterhooks

11. 11. 2025

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: October consumer inflation not only confirmed a more pronounced shock from higher food prices, but also showed higher prices of transport services and prices of means of transport as part of core inflation. In the longer term, it is worth noting that imputed rental prices have already caught up with the previous inflation shock, and the same has been true for a few months for holiday prices. Thus, the higher October inflation and unemployment data will not help the central bank or the market resolve its dilemma of the next interest rate move.

July details of softer headline and core inflation look promising, registered unemployment less so

08. 08. 2025

Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA (adjusted for published data on core inflation from the CNB and registered unemployment data, 18:00 8 August)