We estimate that the seasonally adjusted registered unemployment rate will rise to 4.49% in July 2025 from 4.41% a month earlier. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate reached 4.4% in July, up 0.2% point from the previous month. Thus, the month-on-month change in the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate in July reflects a seasonal increase in unemployment but also a partly cyclical deterioration.
On a year-over-year basis, July's unemployment rate is 0.6% points above its July 2024 level of 3.8%.
In 2024, the unemployment rate reached 3.8%, and its average this year so far is 4.3%. Compared to the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the share of the unemployed is thus 1.2% points above its 3.3% level in Q1 2022 and 1.7% points higher than the pre-Cold War average of 2.8% in 2019. Since 2005, the share of registered unemployed reached its lowest level since our seasonal estimate of 2.7% in June 2019, while its highest level of 8% comes from November 2013. \The CSO survey's different concept of the sample unemployment rate reached 3% in June 2025 in the form of a trendcycle (more seasonally adjusted), compared to 2.8% in the previous month or 2.8% a year ago. In 2024, the average general unemployment rate according to the CSO survey was 2.8% and so far this year it has averaged 2.8%. This sample unemployment rate reached its lowest since 1993 at 2% in February 2019 and its highest since January 2000 at 9.3%.

CSU (selection). Labour Office (registration)

The general unemployment rate from the CSO is sampled against a sample of households in dwellings and measured against the labour force (the sum of employed and unemployed), while the unemployment rate from the Labour Office measures the number of registered job seekers aged 15-64 against the total population aged 15-64. \From May 2025, the CSO publishes the unemployment rate in a "trendcycle" format instead of the previously published seasonally adjusted series. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes non-seasonally adjusted data and the seasonal adjustment is estimated by the CBA.

Economics

Monthly

Wage dynamics