Unemployment

General unemployment rate (trendcycklus)

Unemployment

(%)
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CBA Commentary
We estimate that the seasonally adjusted registered unemployment rate will rise to 4.87% in January 2026 from 4.69% a month earlier. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate reached 5.1% in January, up 0.3% point from the previous month. Thus, the month-on-month change in the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate in January reflects a seasonal increase in unemployment but also a partly cyclical deterioration.
On a year-over-year basis, the January unemployment rate is 0.8% points above its January 2025 level of 4.3%.
In 2025, the jobless rate reached 4.4%, and its average so far this year is at 4.9%. Compared to the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the jobless rate is thus 1.6% points above the 3.3% level of the first quarter of 2022, and is 2.1% points higher than the pre-invasion average of 2.8% in 2019. Since 2005, the share of registered unemployed according to our seasonal estimate reached its lowest level of 2.7% in January 2020, while its highest level of 8% comes from January 2014.
A different concept of the CSO survey sample unemployment rate reached 3.2% in December 2025 in the form of a trendcycle (more seasonally adjusted) compared to 3.2% in the previous month or 2.7% a year ago. In 2024, this average general unemployment rate according to the CSO survey was 2.8% and so far this year it has averaged 3%. This sample unemployment rate reached its lowest since 1993 at 2% in February 2019 and its highest since January 2000 at 9.3%.
Source of primary data
CSU (selection). Labour Office (registration)
Note
The general unemployment rate from the CSO is sampled against a sample of households in dwellings and measured against the labour force (the sum of employed and unemployed), while the unemployment rate from the Labour Office measures the number of registered job seekers aged 15-64 against the total population aged 15-64. \From May 2025, the CSO publishes the unemployment rate in a "trendcycle" format instead of the previously published seasonally adjusted series. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes non-seasonally adjusted data and the seasonal adjustment is estimated by the CBA.
Category
Economics
Data frequency
Monthly
Related Charts
Wage dynamics
CBA forecast: unemployment
Comments
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7 min. reading
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Economic growth slowed down at the end of last year, but still achieved solid 0.5% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth.The structure of growth has not changed significantly - consumption is dominant, which is probably not true of investment. This is in line with the latest sentiment data. A more positive sign is improving productivity. The outlook for this year is a repeat of last year's 2.5% growth, thanks to a better outlook for real wage growth and a change in fiscal policy. Conversely, weaker external demand, even given industrial sentiment, is likely to be a drag on stronger economic growth.
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5 min. reading
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11. 11. 2025
5 min. reading
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10. 7. 2025
7 min. reading
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
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May confidence in the economy: despite all the setbacks, we're moving on ilustrační foto
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26. 5. 2025
5 min. reading
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
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