CBA Hypomonitor: still strong end of the year with mortgage rates below 4.5%
Since the beginning of the year, their volume has reached CZK 293 billion, i.e. CZK 84 billion more than a year ago.
Prague, 12 December 2025 - In November 2025, banks and building societies granted new mortgages worth CZK 28.1 billion. Compared to October, the volume of activity decreased by 4%, but after excluding seasonal effects, activity in the last two months has stabilized at 30 billion with the number of new mortgages around 6,700. Since the beginning of the year, the volume of new mortgages has thus reached CZK 293 billion, i.e. CZK 84 billion more than a year ago. This information is based on data from the CBA Hypomonitor, which captures data from all domestic banks and building societies providing mortgage loans.
Despite higher market rates, the average realised interest rate on new mortgages remained unchanged in November after falling to 4.48% in October. The year-on-year decline of 0.37 percentage points reduces the average monthly repayment by approximately CZK 9,900, or 1% of the mortgage applicant's net income. However, the average size of a newly granted mortgage rose slightly to CZK 4.38 million in November. And its year-on-year increase of more than half a million crowns raises the average repayment by almost three thousand crowns, or more than 3% of income.
If mortgages maintain the momentum of the last two months, i.e. for October to November, then this year's volume of new mortgages without refinancing could reach CZK 322 billion, or over 40% more than last year, an unchanged outlook from recent months. This is accompanied by a slightly weaker estimate of the number of new mortgages this year, at 76.3k, still less than a quarter above last year's numbers.
The annualized momentum of the current momentum holds solid promise for next year, as it suggests over 11% growth in new mortgages (+35bn) compared to this year's potential volume. However, the increase may be more than halved by the CNB's stricter recommendation on so-called investment mortgages. Namely, with the upper recommended LTV levels at 70% of the property value and DTI at 7 times net annual income from April 2026 (vs. 80 and 90% limits and the recommended 8 times). The decision may affect about 7.5% of new mortgages with 15% more or less normally exceeding the new recommendations.I analyzed in more detail here: CNB tightens conditions for investment mortgages: 9% impact or needed redistribution of demand? The next CNB meeting related to the setting of macroprudential mortgage policy will take place on 4 June 2026, and before that the CNB will decide on the countercyclical capital buffer on 5 March (the next meetings will be on 10 September and 26 November).
Table 1: Summary of mortgage origination volumes and average interest rates for November 2025
monthly values | year-to-date values | ||||||
Volume | Number | Rate | Volume | Number | Rate | ||
Total | 37,1 | 8 856 | 4,47 | 368,7 | 91 171 | 4,57 | |
New loans | 28,1 | 6 413 | 4,48 | 292,6 | 69 714 | 4,58 | |
of which: | |||||||
for purchase | 23,0 | 5 138 | 4,47 | 234,2 | 54 763 | 4,58 | |
for construction | 3,2 | 770 | 4,43 | 42,5 | 10 443 | 4,55 | |
Other | 1,9 | 505 | 4,61 | 15,9 | 4 508 | 4,74 | |
Refinanced from another institution | 7,5 | 2 072 | 4,45 | 62,5 | 17 814 | 4,54 | |
Refinanced internally, increased | 1,5 | 371 | 4,47 | 13,5 | 3 643 | 4,55 | |
Source: CBA Hypomonitor | |||||||
"November's mortgage momentum continues to hold solid in both volumes and numbers of new mortgages, reflecting both continued house price growth and higher purchasing power thanks to continued strong wage growth.Barring a negative shock in the form of higher interest rates, tighter regulation or a further rise in unemployment, we will see higher annual numbers not only for 2025," says Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist at the Czech Banking Association.
November confirmed strong mortgage volumes of around CZK 30 billion
In November, banks and building societies actually granted new mortgage loans worth CZK 28.1 billion. Compared to October, new mortgage activity fell by around 4% in volume terms. However, after seasonal adjustment, November's new mortgage lending figures brought a 6% improvement to CZK 30.7 billion compared to October's CZK 28.9 billion, and were above the average volume of the previous three months (CZK 28.7 billion). The volume of new mortgage originations in November was approximately 41% higher than in the second half of last year. In year-on-year terms, the growth in the volume of mortgage originations slowed further to 30% in November from 35% in October, following an average 83% year-on-year increase in the previous year. Around 80% of new lending volume this year has been for purchase and 15% for construction, compared with 74% and 20% respectively in the previous five years.
"Currently, the mortgage market is most affected by the increased demand for refinancing. This trend is related to the fact that many clients are gradually coming to the end of their five-year fixations agreed at a time of very low rates during Covid. Thus, a large number of people are entering the market looking for the best possible terms for refinancing their existing mortgage. From Fio banka's point of view, the further development of the real estate market and future interest rates will be influenced mainly by the continuing shortage of new apartments and the related price growth, but also by the increasingly strong competitive "fight" between banks," says Jan Bláha, Commercial Director and member of the Board of Directors of Fio banka.
The number of new mortgages fell 5.3% month-on-month to 6,413 in November, but this is 14% higher than a year ago. We estimate the seasonally adjusted number to be around 6,712, around the average number of the previous three months. Since the beginning of the year, the number of new mortgages has reached 69.7 thousand units (+23.5% year-on-year). The dynamics of the number of new mortgages from the last two months, i.e. for October to November, implies an increase this year to a total number of around 76.3 thousand, which would be almost 24% higher than last year and above the 72 thousand of 2019. However, this year's number will also remain below the average number of around 95 thousand from 2016 to 2018 or below the record 114 thousand of 2021.
Chart 1: New mortgages granted without refinancing
InNovember 2025, although new mortgages slowed down compared to October to CZK 28.1 billion, they reached CZK 30.7 billion after seasonal adjustment.
Source: CNB, CBA Hypomonitor (pre-2020 volumes are from CNB statistics).
Chart 2: Average mortgage amount by purpose
The average size of an actual new mortgage increased slightly to CZK 4.38 million in November. This is 14% higher than the CZK 3.84million mortgage in the same period last year. CZK a year ago.
Source: CNB, CBA Hypomonitor
The volume of externally refinanced and increased loans (internally or from another institution) fell to CZK 8.9 billion in November. This is, however, almost 1.3 times the average of just under four billion refinanced last year and more than three times the average for 2023. The share of refinanced loans in total mortgage originations remained essentially unchanged at around 24.1%, above last year's average of 16.9%. It is thus above the 17.2% share from 2022-2023, but still below the nearly 29% share from 2020-2021, when households refinanced at a mortgage rate of 2.14%. In November 2025, households refinanced at a rate of 4.45%, but that is still 0.27 percentage points lower than the 4.72% rate a year ago. The higher refinancing volumes reflect the confluence of expiring longer fixings from the low interest rate period and shorter fixings from the recent higher interest rate period.
"The volumes of new mortgages observed over a number of months suggest that households interested in mortgaging have come to terms with the idea of interest rates at significantly higher levels than we have seen previously.The latest development in interbank interest rates suggests that no further decline in mortgage rates can be expected in the coming months, and that a rise is even quite likely," believes Michal Skořepa, an economist at Česká spořitelna and chairman of the Committee on Budget Forecasts.
Overall, banks and building societies granted new and refinanced mortgages in the amount of CZK 37.1 billion in November, which is 4.4% less than a month ago. However, their total volume this year so far has reached CZK 369 billion, a 47% increase compared to January-November of the previous year.
The average mortgage rate remained at a lower level of 4.48% in November
November market interest rates continued to rise, but the average realised interest rate on new mortgages remained unchanged in November after falling to 4.48% in October. Its reduction thus reinforces a stabilising trend below the 5% last seen in July 2024. Its November level is thus 0.37 percentage points lower than the 4.85% rate a year ago, reducing monthly mortgage repayments by around 1% of an applicant's net income, or nine hundred crowns. By comparison, the average mortgage rate in 2024 was 5.07% compared to 5.81% in 2023.
The November mortgage rate for new mortgages, at 4.48%, was 0.74 percentage points above average market swap rates. This is approximately 0.33 bps below the long-term average since 2014 (1.07 bps), while in the previous three months the spread to the long-term average was -0.15 bps.
Chart 3: Average mortgage interest rate - new business
In November, it remained at 4.48%, easing to 0.37 p.p. compared to 4.85% a year ago
Source: CNB, CBA Hypomonitor
Chart 4: A still brisk pace of core inflation, stronger economic growth but also the post-election result and higher foreign rates kept market long-term rates higher in November
Source: LSEG, Macrobond (9 December 2025), CBA
Czech market interest rates, [1] which are a key influence on mortgage rates, further closed the door to further declines in mortgage rates in November, although softer November inflation brought a partial correction. Czech five-year interest rate swaps rose 0.14 percentage point to 3.95% in November from 3.81% in October and were above September's 3.78%. Their November level is 0.11 p.p. below the 3.84% of the previous third quarter. November's level thus brings a new upper limit to their range over the past twelve months, when they instead reached their lowest monthly average of 3.29% (in April 2025 after Trump's announcement of the so-called reciprocal tariffs). Compared to the average level of five-year swaps in 2024, November rates were 0.37 bps higher.
Czech higher interest rates did not only reflect Czech economic data, but also higher foreign rates. In the case of US five-year interest rate swaps, these rose to 3.63% in November from 3.58% in October and were 0.49 p.p. below their average level in 2024. Euro five-year swaps rose to 2.39% in November from 2.33% in October and were 0.19 p.p. below their average level of 2.58% last year.
Domestic factors pushing interest rate swaps higher mainly included: i) the prospect of tighter monetary conditions after the November CNB meeting; ii) higher October core inflation momentum; and iii) stronger third-quarter GDP growth without a corresponding advance in hourly productivity. In contrast, relief in early December came only from lower November inflation, including in the core segment, which was accompanied by weaker numbers from the manufacturing side of the economy. However, the consumption part, as well as still strong wage growth and a rather inflationary outcome of the parliamentary elections in the medium term, limits the pigeon signals for the central bank.
[1] These are mainly long-term interest rate swaps (IRS), which reflect the price of money at longer maturities, for example 2 to 10 years.
The average size of a new mortgage actually granted in November was 4.38 million. CZK returned to its growth trajectory
After a slight decline to CZK 4.34 million in October, the new mortgage rate has fallen to CZK 4.34 million. The average mortgage volume rose by almost 1% month-on-month. Its size in November was thus 14% higher than the CZK 3.84 million in November. CZK a year ago. Mortgages for property purchases were 2% higher than the average size of a new mortgage this year, while mortgages for construction were 3% lower, closing the gap that was 4% and -6% in the previous five years. Achieving a higher mortgage is made possible by the gradual decline in mortgage rates, or the gradual rise in real household incomes (4.5% y/y in Q3-2025 or charted here), along with the continued relaxation of macroprudential income limits by the CBN so far (only 80% LTV limit or 90% for applicants under 36). These will be tightened for so-called investment mortgages from April 2026.
The mortgage amount is then also linked to the development of property prices, which, according to Flat Zone data, returned to a stronger 14% year-on-year growth in the third quarter of 2025 (see charts on the CBA Monitor). The CSO data points to house price growth of around 15% y/y in Q2 and an overall house price index of around 10% (see comment here).
Impact on the average monthly mortgage payment of around CZK 23.5 thousand
The combination of the fall in interest rates and the higher average mortgage amount in November 2025 compared to the 2024 averages increased the average monthly mortgage payment by CZK 2.5k. Kc. The scenarios of the evolution of the monthly payment for different mortgage maturities are shown in Table 2. It suggests that a fall in mortgage rates of almost 0,6 percentage point relative to their average rate of 5,07 % in 2024 would, for an average mortgage size with a typical repayment term of around 26,8 years, reduce the monthly repayment by less than CZK 1 500 to around CZK 23 500 000. This represents a reduction of CZK 1,500,000, i.e. 1,6 % of the applicant's net income compared to the average repayment in the previous year. Compared to the average mortgage rate of 5.81% in 2023, the savings due to the interest rate amounted to less than CZK 3 500 for a mortgage at its current average value.
However, the current average mortgage amount is 19% higher than its 2024 average, which contributes to an increase in the monthly payment of CZK 3.8k. The average monthly mortgage repayment in the previous year is based on last year's average mortgage amount, but at the current interest rate. The mortgage payment of CZK 1 million with a 30-year maturity at current interest rates is around CZK 5.1 thousand.
Conversely, compared to the average 2.8% mortgage interest rate for new mortgages in 2019, the current refinance mortgage rate of 4.45% when the loan maturity is shortened raises the monthly payment on the average mortgage by more than CZK 1,600, or about 3.2% of the current gross average wage.
Table 2: Illustration of the average monthly mortgage payment by length of repayment and interest rate
Average size of a new mortgage in CZK: | 4 384 000 | ||||||
Average interest rate in %: | 2,0 | 3,0 | 4,0 | 4,48 | 5,0 | 6,0 | |
Monthly instalment: | |||||||
Mortgage maturity in years: | 15 | 28 210 | 30 280 | 32 430 | 33 490 | 34 670 | 36 990 |
20 | 22 180 | 24 310 | 26 570 | 27 690 | 28 930 | 31 410 | |
25 | 18 580 | 20 790 | 23 140 | 24 320 | 25 630 | 28 250 | |
26,8 | 17 640 | 19 870 | 22 260 | 23 450 | 24 790 | 27 450 | |
30 | 16 200 | 18 480 | 20 930 | 22 160 | 23 530 | 26 280 | |
Source: CBA [1] | |||||||
Note: the coloured column corresponds to the interest rate of the latest CBA Hypomonitor, other rates are illustrative; the coloured row corresponds to the average maturity of new mortgages according to CNB data; amounts are rounded to tens of crowns. | |||||||
Chart 5: Illustrative comparison of the average monthly mortgage payment with a year ago, depending on the interest rate, mortgage size and maturity in years
In ayear-on-year comparison, the fall in the mortgage rate resulted in a saving of CZK 950 on the average monthly payment, but the increase in the average mortgage amount caused an increase of CZK 2 930.
Source. Note: Amounts are rounded to tens of crowns.
Statistical Annex
Chart 6: Seasonality of new mortgage loans
Source: CBA Hypomonitor
Note: These are actually new mortgages (i.e. excluding refinancing and increases). The underlying data is available in the xls file attached on the CBA Hypomonitor website. The outlook to the end of the year (fcst) is a snapshot - based on the current trend, not a model prediction.
Chart 7: Distribution of new mortgage loans by purpose
Source: CBA Hypomonitor
Note: The last figure represents the average for the last 12 months.
Mortgage market in 2024: record growth of 83%
For the whole year 2024, banks and building societies granted new mortgage loans in the volume of CZK 228 billion. In addition, mortgages were refinanced to the tune of CZK 47 billion, bringing the total mortgage market to CZK 275 billion in 2024 from CZK 150 billion in 2023. If we adjust the volumes for the 5-8% increase in house prices (according to various statistics), the volume of new mortgages grew slightly less in real terms. This corresponds to a more modest 53% year-on-year increase in the number of new mortgages in 2024 to nearly 62,000 and a nearly 20% increase in the average amount of a new mortgage granted to CZK 3.7 million. Compared to the pre-pandemic years 2017-2019, the volume of new mortgages granted in 2024 was roughly less than a fifth higher.
Chart 8: Annual volume, number and average amount of mortgages granted between 2020 and 2024
Source: CBA Hypomonitor
CBA publishes summary statistics for the entire banking market
The Czech Banking Association, in cooperation with its member banks, publishes new aggregate statistics on the housing market. These are mainly the volumes and numbers of newly granted and refinanced mortgages and the respective interest rate. These statistics are published by the CBA in aggregate form for the entire banking sector on a regular basis around the middle of each month. All domestic banks and building societies providing mortgages in the Czech Republic participate in the survey. The data are available from January 2020 in the attached file on the website www.cbaonline.cz, where the relevant statistics can also be found separately for banks and building societies. The above figures are for the sector as a whole, which can also be viewed in a simple graphical form on the cbamonitor.cz website.
Methodology of the CBA Hypomonitor
The CBA Hypomonitor divides mortgage loans granted by banks and building societies to households into several categories in order to distinguish new loans from refinanced or internal refixations. New loans are then reported in categories according to the purpose of the loan:
1. new loans
These are loans whose full volume enters the economy for the first time. This category does not include loan consolidations or loan refinancing. It is divided into three categories:
- Purchase of real estate
- Property construction - including property renovation
- Other new arrangements - only new loans that are in no way related to the purchase or construction of the property, e.g. so-called American mortgages, settlement of a JVM, repayment of the purchase price, settlement of an inheritance share, settlement of a cooperative share, etc.
2. Refinanced loans from another financial institution
These are loans that have been originated by refinancing one or more loans from a financial institution other than the reporting one. Irrespective of the amount refinanced and regardless of the amount of any increase, the total amount of the newly originated loan is reported in this category.
3. Loans increased or internally refinanced
These are loans that were already part of the reporting entity's portfolio in the previous reporting period and have undergone one of the following changes during the reporting period:
- an increase in the agreed amount
- changes such that the original loan has been refinanced/converted into a new loan within the reporting entity. This is a genuinely new contract and not, for example, just a new arrangement in the context of a refixation of an existing contract. Therefore, the volume of such loans in the CBA statistics is lower than 'other new arrangements' in the Czech National Bank statistics.
The following banks and building societies provide data for the CBA Hypomonitor: Air Bank, Banka Creditas, Česká spořitelna, ČSOB, ČSOB Stavební spořitelna, Fio banka, Hypoteční banka, Komerční banka, mBank, Modrá pyramida, MONETA Money Bank, MONETA Stavební spořitelna, Oberbank, Partners Banka, Raiffeisen stavební spořitelna, Raiffeisenbank, Stavební spořitelna České spořitelna, UniCredit Bank.