CBA Hypomonitor: Still strong October activity with mortgage rates below 4.5%
Since the beginning of the year, the volume of new mortgages has reached CZK 265 billion
Prague, 14 November 2025 - In October 2025, banks and building societies granted new mortgages worth CZK 29.4 billion. Since the beginning of the year, their volume has reached CZK 265 billion, which is CZK 78 billion more than a year ago. Compared to September, activity has weakened slightly, but in the last three months, on average (seasonally adjusted), new mortgages have been granted in a volume of just under CZK 29 billion. If this pace continues in the last two months of the year, then this year's volume would move up 40% to just under CZK 320 billion. The average realised mortgage rate fell slightly further to 4.48% from 4.52% in September. The above information is based on data from the CBA Hypomonitor, which captures data from all domestic banks and building societies providing mortgage loans.
A 0.42% point year-on-year drop in mortgage rates reduces monthly repayments by more than CZK 1,000 on average, i.e. by more than 1% of the mortgage applicant's net income. Although the average size of a newly granted mortgage remained essentially unchanged at CZK 4.34 million in October, its year-on-year increase of CZK 550 thousand leads to a higher average monthly repayment, almost CZK 3 thousand higher than in the previous month. This is approximately 3.2% of the applicant's income. The average mortgage payment in October was approximately CZK 23.2 thousand.
The strong mortgage activity in terms of volume is accompanied by a solid recovery in the number of new mortgages, which, after excluding the seasonal effect, were around 6.7 thousand in the last three months. This would lift this year's number by a quarter year-on-year to more than 76,000. Although we can talk about the second strongest mortgage year in terms of volume, mortgage numbers will be around the levels of 2019 and 2020, but below the record year of 2021, and also less than in 2016-2018.
Thus, the new numbers do not bring a significant change in trend. Thus, the mortgage numbers are likely to continue to pose an upside hawkish risk to the CNB's interest rate policy and are likely to keep the non-trivial debate over the macroprudential policy settings alive, but probably with the level of mortgage loan limits (LTV at 80% or 90% < 36 years with DSTI, DTI indicators deactivated) or the level of countercyclical buffer at the CNB's November 27 meeting unchanged.
Table 1: Summary of mortgage origination volumes and average interest rates for October 2025 and so far this year
monthly values | year-to-date values | ||||||
Volume | Number | Rate | Volume | Number | Rate | ||
Total | 37,6 | 8 952 | 4,52 | 292,9 | 72 941 | 4,60 | |
New loans | 29,6 | 6 795 | 4,52 | 235,1 | 56 532 | 4,61 | |
of which: | |||||||
for purchase | 23,6 | 5 348 | 4,51 | 187,8 | 44 290 | 4,60 | |
for construction | 4,1 | 959 | 4,50 | 35,5 | 8 756 | 4,57 | |
Other | 1,9 | 488 | 4,66 | 11,9 | 3 486 | 4,79 | |
Refinanced from another institution | 6,8 | 1 845 | 4,49 | 47,3 | 13 555 | 4,56 | |
Refinanced internally, increased | 1,2 | 312 | 4,54 | 10,5 | 2 854 | 4,57 | |
Source. | |||||||
"Despite the October correction, mortgage numbers remain very strong. The volume of newly granted mortgages has remained around CZK 29 billion in recent months. Numbers are also holding at higher levels and are likely to exceed last year by around a quarter this year, with higher house prices pushing the total volume of new lending up by more than a third.However, the mortgage market needs positive supply impulses - ones that would ease property prices and help bring market interest rates back to lower levels," says Jaromír Šindel, chief economist at the Czech Banking Association.
Strong summer mortgage activity continued in October
In October, banks and building societies actually granted new mortgage loans worth CZK 29.4 billion. After seasonal adjustment, October's new mortgage figures brought a 7.5% deterioration to CZK 28.9 billion compared to September's CZK 31.3 billion, and are thus close to the average volume of the previous three months (CZK 28.8 billion). The volume of new mortgages granted in October was about one-third higher than in the second half of last year, while the volume of new mortgages rose by 83% last year.
Note the outlook for the rest of the year is momentary - it is based on the current trend, not on a model forecast.
"Demand for mortgages is still rising. In October, we received a record number of applications this year, up by a third month-on-month. At the same time, we closed mortgages in record volume, helped by a slight increase in interest in refinancing loans. So much good news.The bad news is that interest rates are slowly starting to rise and if this trend continues, it will be unsustainable to keep mortgage loans at the current average rate of around 4.5%," says Milan Voldřich, product manager for home loans at Raiffeisenbank.
The number of new mortgages also fell slightly to just under 6 800 in October, 18% more than a year ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, we estimate the number to be over 6,700, around 1% below the average number (6,792) in the previous three months. Year-to-date, the number of new mortgages has reached 63.3 thousand (+24.5% yoy). The dynamics of the number of new mortgages from the last three months, i.e. August to September, implies an increase to a total of around 76.3 thousand this year. This would be almost 24% more than last year and between the levels of 2019 and 2020. However, this year's number will remain below the average numbers of around 95k from 2016 to 2018 or the 114k of 2021.
Chart 1: New mortgages granted without refinancing
Banks and building societies granted fewer new mortgages in October 2025 than in September, at CZK 29.4 billion, or CZK 28.9 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Source: CNB, CBA Hypomonitor (pre-2020 volumes are from CNB statistics)
Chart 2: Average amount of new mortgages actually granted by purpose
The average size of actual new mortgage originations in October remained essentially unchanged at around CZK 4.34 million. The average level of mortgages this year is more than 6% higher than in the same period last year.
Source: CNB, CBA Hypomonitor
The volume of refinanced and increased loans (internally or from another institution) rose to CZK 9.4 billion in October. This is almost 1.5 times more than the average of 3.9 billion refinanced last year and more than three times more compared to 2023. The share of refinanced loans in total mortgage originations then rose to 24.2%, above the nearly 17% average of the previous three years. However, the share still remains near the 29% share from 2020-2021, when households refinanced at a mortgage rate of 2.14%. In October 2025, households refinanced at a rate of 4.46%, down 0.3% points from 4.76% a year ago.
"Banks are currently addressing refixations of high volumes of a large part of clients with low interest rates. This means increased activity - they are trying to retain clients and offer them stability and fair terms.It is most advantageous for the client to communicate with his/her bank and in case of switching to a new bank to know the real savings when refinancing, including all fees," says Soňa Holíková, mBank's mortgage manager.
Overall, banks and building societies granted new and refinanced mortgages in October in the amount of CZK 38.8 billion, which is 3.2% more than a month ago. Their total volume so far this year has reached CZK 332 billion, a 47% increase compared to January-October of the previous year.
Average mortgage rate moved lower to 4.48% in October
The average realised interest rate on new mortgages fell slightly further in October to 4.48% from 4.52% in September. Its reduction thus confirms a downward trend below the 5% last seen in July 2024. Its October level is thus 0.42% points lower than the 4.9% rate a year ago, reducing monthly mortgage payments by around 1.1% of the applicant's net income, i.e. by 1k. CZK. By comparison, the average mortgage rate in 2024 was 5.07% compared to 5.81% in 2023.
Chart 3: Average mortgage rate - new business
The mortgage rate fell slightly to 4.48% in October, 0.42% points lower than the 4.9% rate a year ago.
Source: CNB, CBA Hypomonitor
Chart 4: Still higher inflation, stronger economic growth, but also the post-election result keep market long-term rates higher
Source: LSEG, Macrobond (11 November 2025), CBA
Czech market interest rates,[1] which are a key influence on mortgage rates, remained at higher levels in October and priced in about two CNB rate hikes on the three-year horizon in November.Thus, not only do they limit the path to a more significant decline in mortgage rates, but they essentially raise the question about their possible future rise. Czech five-year interest rate swaps were on an imaginary seesaw in October, but moved marginally higher to 3.8% on average and continued to rise to 3.9% in early November. They are thus at their highest level since June 2024, when the CBR rate was 4.75%, three-quarters of a percentage point above its current level, outside the range of its monthly averages of 3.29% (as of April 2025) and 3.81% (as of October 2025) over the past 12 months. US interest rates also moved higher in November. Euro rates too, but those less so. The rise in Czech interest rates reflected continued higher core inflation whose momentum is not in line with the inflation target, surprisingly stronger GDP growth in Q3, but the market also priced in a rather pro-inflationary outcome of the parliamentary elections.
The mortgage rate on new mortgages, according to the CBA Hypomonitor, fell marginally to 4.48% in October and was thus around 0.85% points above average market swap rates. This is approximately 0.22% points below the long-term average since 2014 (1.07% points).
The average size of actual new mortgage originations fell marginally to 4.34 million in October. CZK
However, its size is still 15% higher than the CZK 3.8mn figure. CZK a year ago. The gradual decline in mortgage rates or the gradual rise in real household incomes (3.9% y/y in Q2-2025 or graph here), together with the continued relaxation of macroprudential income limits by the CNB (only 80% LTV limit or 90% for applicants under 36), is making it possible to achieve a higher mortgage. Mortgage rates are then also linked to house price trends, which, according to Flat Zone, maintained a still strong 10% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025 (see charts on CBA Monitor - CBA Monitor or in the commentary here). CSO data points to house price growth of around 15% y/y and an overall house price index of around 10% y/y in Q1 2015 (see commentary here).
[1] These are primarily long-dated interest rate swaps (IRS), which reflect the price of money at longer maturities, such as 2 to 10 years.
Impact on the average monthly mortgage payment of around CZK 23.2 thousand
The combination of the fall in interest rates and the higher average mortgage amount in October 2025 compared to the 2024 averages increased the average monthly mortgage payment by CZK 2.3k. Kc. The scenarios of the evolution of the monthly payment for different mortgage maturities are shown in Table 2. It suggests that a fall in mortgage rates of almost 0.6% points relative to their average rate of 5.07% in 2024 would, for an average mortgage size with a typical repayment term of around 26.8 years, reduce the monthly repayment by just under CZK 1 500 to around CZK 23 200 000. This represents a reduction of CZK 1,500,000, i.e. 1,6 % of the applicant's net income compared to the average repayment in the previous year. Compared to the average mortgage rate of 5.81% in 2023, the savings due to the interest rate amounted to just under CZK 3 400 for a mortgage at its current average value.
However, the current average mortgage amount is 18% higher than its average amount in 2024, which contributes to an increase in the monthly payment of CZK 3.6k. The average monthly repayment in the previous yearis linked to last year's average mortgage amount, but at the current interest rate. The mortgage payment of CZK 1 million with a 30-year maturity at current interest rates is around CZK 5.1 thousand.
Conversely, compared to the average 2.8% mortgage interest rate for new mortgages in 2019, the current refinance mortgage rate of 4.46% when the loan maturity is shortened raises the monthly payment on the average mortgage by more than CZK 1,600, or about 3.2% of the current gross average wage.
Table 2: Illustration of the average monthly mortgage payment by length of repayment and interest rate
Average size of a new mortgage in CZK: | 4 343 490 | ||||||
Average interest rate in %: | 2,0 | 3,0 | 4,0 | 4,48 | 5,0 | 6,0 | |
Monthly instalment: | |||||||
Mortgage maturity in years: | 15 | 27 950 | 30 000 | 32 130 | 33 190 | 34 350 | 36 650 |
20 | 21 970 | 24 090 | 26 320 | 27 440 | 28 670 | 31 120 | |
25 | 18 410 | 20 600 | 22 930 | 24 100 | 25 390 | 27 990 | |
26,8 | 17 480 | 19 690 | 22 050 | 23 250 | 24 560 | 27 200 | |
30 | 16 050 | 18 310 | 20 740 | 21 970 | 23 320 | 26 040 | |
Source: CBA [1] | |||||||
Note: the coloured column corresponds to the interest rate of the latest CBA Hypomonitor, other rates are illustrative; the coloured row corresponds to the average maturity of new mortgages according to CNB data; amounts are rounded to tens of crowns. | |||||||
Chart 5: Illustrative comparison of the average monthly mortgage payment with a year ago, depending on the interest rate, mortgage size and maturity in years
In the year-on-year comparison, the decrease in the mortgage rate resulted in a saving of CZK 1 050 in the average monthly payment, but the increase in the average mortgage amount caused an increase of CZK 2 980.
Source: CBA.
Note: amounts are rounded to tens of crowns.
Statistical annex
Source: CBA Hypomonitor
Note: These are genuinely new mortgages (i.e. without refinancing and increases). The underlying data is available in the xls file attached on the CBA Hypomonitor website. The outlook to the end of the year (fcst) is a snapshot - based on the current trend, not a model prediction.
Mortgage market in 2024: record growth of 83%
For the whole year 2024, banks and building societies granted new mortgage loans in the volume of CZK 228 billion. In addition, mortgages were refinanced to the tune of CZK 47 billion, bringing the total mortgage market to CZK 275 billion in 2024 from CZK 150 billion in 2023. If we adjust the volumes for the 5-8% increase in house prices (according to various statistics), the volume of new mortgages grew slightly less in real terms. This corresponds to a more modest 53% year-on-year increase in the number of new mortgages in 2024 to nearly 62,000 and a nearly 20% increase in the average amount of a new mortgage granted to CZK 3.7 million. Compared to the pre-pandemic years 2017-2019, the volume of new mortgages granted in 2024 was roughly less than a fifth higher.
Chart 6: Annual volume, number and average amount of mortgages granted between 2020 and 2024
Source: CBA Hypomonitor
CBA publishes summary statistics for the entire banking market
The Czech Banking Association, in cooperation with its member banks, publishes new aggregate statistics on the housing market. These are mainly the volumes and numbers of newly granted and refinanced mortgages and the respective interest rate. These statistics are published by the CBA in aggregate form for the entire banking sector on a regular basis around the middle of each month. All domestic banks and building societies providing mortgages in the Czech Republic participate in the survey. The data are available from January 2020 in the attached file on the website www.cbaonline.cz, where the relevant statistics can also be found separately for banks and building societies. The above figures are for the sector as a whole, which can also be viewed in a simple graphical form on the cbamonitor.cz website.
Methodology of the CBA Hypomonitor
The CBA Hypomonitor divides mortgage loans granted by banks and building societies to households into several categories in order to distinguish new loans from refinanced or internal refixations. New loans are then reported in categories according to the purpose of the loan:
1. new loans
These are loans whose full volume enters the economy for the first time. This category does not include loan consolidations or loan refinancing. It is divided into three categories:
- Purchase of real estate
- Property construction - including property renovation
- Other new arrangements - only new loans that are in no way related to the purchase or construction of the property, e.g. so-called American mortgages, settlement of a JVM, repayment of the purchase price, settlement of an inheritance share, settlement of a cooperative share, etc.
2. Refinanced loans from another financial institution
These are loans that have been originated by refinancing one or more loans from a financial institution other than the reporting one. Irrespective of the amount refinanced and regardless of the amount of any increase, the total amount of the newly originated loan is reported in this category.
3. Loans increased or internally refinanced
These are loans that were already part of the reporting entity's portfolio in the previous reporting period and have undergone one of the following changes during the reporting period:
- an increase in the agreed amount
- changes such that the original loan has been refinanced/converted into a new loan within the reporting entity. This is a genuinely new contract and not, for example, just a new arrangement in the context of a refixation of an existing contract. Therefore, the volume of such loans in the CBA statistics is lower than 'other new arrangements' in the Czech National Bank statistics.
The following banks and building societies provide data for the CBA Hypomonitor: Air Bank, Banka Creditas, Česká spořitelna, ČSOB, ČSOB Stavební spořitelna, Fio banka, Hypoteční banka, Komerční banka, mBank, Modrá pyramida, MONETA Money Bank, MONETA Stavební spořitelna, Oberbank, Partners Banka, Raiffeisen stavební spořitelna, Raiffeisenbank, Stavební spořitelna České spořitelna, UniCredit Bank.