If mortgages maintain the momentum of the last two months, i.e. October to November, then in 2025 the volume of new mortgages without refinancing could reach CZK 322 billion, +41% compared to last year (and the outlook for next year is promising as the annualized current momentum is 11.2% higher compared to this year's potential volume). This is accompanied by a slightly worse estimate of the number of new mortgages this year at 76.3k, which is close to the average estimate of the annualised result of the previous three months (76k units). Hypomonitor's history since 2020 shows their lowest annual volume at 124 billion in 2023 and their highest volume at 379 billion in 2021.
Source of primary data
CBA Hypomonitor
Note
A more detailed breakdown of the CBA Hypomonitor data is available in its monthly data supplement, see: https://www.cbamonitor.cz/publicistika/soubory/cba-hypomonitor-data
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The Central Bank, through stricter requirements in the form of recommendations for investment mortgages, has decided to make a modest effort to correct mortgage demand on the real estate market, which remains very tight in terms of prices, mainly due to the supply side - see the drop in building permits.
Despite the slight correction, April continued to see strong volumes of new mortgages supported by another slight decline in the average mortgage rate to 4.65%.