Hypomonitor's history since 2020 shows their lowest annual volume at CZK 124 billion in 2023 and their highest volume at CZK 379 billion in 2021. The figure of CZK 370 billion of new mortgage loans in 2026 reflects the assumption of a similar dynamics of the number of new mortgages as in the last three months, followed by a 7% negative shock from April 2026 due to stricter criteria for so-called investment mortgages, which should result in less than 80,000 new mortgages. The volume is then tightened by assuming 8% annualized growth in the average mortgage amount over the next three months, followed by its stagnation over the rest of the year.
Source of primary data
CBA Hypomonitor
Note
A more detailed breakdown of the CBA Hypomonitor data is available in its monthly data supplement, see: https://www.cbamonitor.cz/publicistika/soubory/cba-hypomonitor-data
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The Central Bank, through stricter requirements in the form of recommendations for investment mortgages, has decided to make a modest effort to correct mortgage demand on the real estate market, which remains very tight in terms of prices, mainly due to the supply side - see the drop in building permits.
Despite the slight correction, April continued to see strong volumes of new mortgages supported by another slight decline in the average mortgage rate to 4.65%.