CBA forecast: CNB interest rate

forecast end 2026

CBA forecast: CNB interest rate

% (average values, but forecast for the end of the period)
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CBA Commentary
However, stronger wage growth together with slightly higher core inflation dynamics are reflected in the outlook for the CNB's stable interest rate at 3.50%. And it is expected to remain at half its 2022-2023 peak level during 2027.
Source of primary data
CNB, CBA
Note
This is the two-week repo rate. \The "Actual figures" are the full-year average and the "Actual ytd" is the average for the year to date, while the "CBA forecast" refers to the end of the period.
The dashed line 'middle band of 25-75% forecasts' represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentile of all forecasts in the CBA consensus.
Category
Forecast
Data frequency
annual
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Comments
Is the unchanged CNB interest rate at 3.50% a sign of the coming bonanza or the calm before the storm? ilustrační foto
Is the unchanged CNB interest rate at 3.50% a sign of the coming bonanza or the calm before the storm?
18. 12. 2025
5 min. reading
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The central bank did not surprise by unanimously leaving interest rates unchanged, i.e. with the two-week repo rate at 3.50%, for the fifth meeting in a row after a 25bp cut in May. Although the Board did not change its view of the risks and uncertainties surrounding the CNB's November forecast, it did assess the risks to inflation as balanced, given the risks in financial markets and the removal of the renewable energy levy, following November's upside assessment.
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