CBA forecast: CNB interest rate

forecast end 2027

CBA forecast: CNB interest rate

% (average values, but forecast for the end of the period)
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CBA Comment
In this environment, the forecast consensus continues to assume that the CNB's key interest rate will remain stable at 3.50% over the entire forecast horizon, owing to persistent wage pressures, including easing fiscal policy, although half of the panel can imagine a 25bp fall in the interest rate over the next two years.
Source of primary data
CNB, CBA
Note
This is the two-week repo rate. \The "Actual figures" are the full-year average and the "Actual ytd figures" are the average for the year to date, while the "CBA forecast" refers to the end of the period.
The dashed line "middle band of 25-75% forecasts" represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentile of all forecasts in the CBA consensus.
Category
Forecast
Data frequency
annual
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Comments
Is the unchanged CNB interest rate at 3.50% a sign of the coming bonanza or the calm before the storm? ilustrační foto
Is the unchanged CNB interest rate at 3.50% a sign of the coming bonanza or the calm before the storm?
18. 12. 2025
5 min. reading
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The central bank did not surprise by unanimously leaving interest rates unchanged, i.e. with the two-week repo rate at 3.50%, for the fifth meeting in a row after a 25bp cut in May. Although the Board did not change its view of the risks and uncertainties surrounding the CNB's November forecast, it did assess the risks to inflation as balanced, given the risks in financial markets and the removal of the renewable energy levy, following November's upside assessment.
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