Economics

Gross domestic product 2.1 % yoy Consumer price inflation (inflation) 1.9 % yoy Industrial production 1.5 % yoy Gross domestic product development 2.1 % yoy Wage dynamics 7.4 % yoy nominal Monthly consumer price inflation (inflation) 2.5 % yoy total Monthly economic activity 0.9 %yoy (03-2026) Unemployment 4.93 % (04-2026) Trust indicators 4.8 % yoy

Stronger wave of mortgage refixing, while the interest-rate shock eases. Higher inflation remains a risk. Retail sales continued to gain momentum in March, together with construction, in contrast to weaker industrial performance The CNB's new outlook for higher rates "only" translated into hawkish communication April inflation accelerated by fuel, but also due to core price pressures The Czech economy slowed in Q1. Household purchasing power remains hopeful

Banking sector

Banking sector assets 11 919.00 CZK billion Number of employees 38 187 Number of banks by size 43 (total) Bank profits in the economy 128.96 CZK billion Profitability of the banking sector 1.13 % profit on assets Capital adequacy and the role of profit in it 23.19 % Interest income and expense 45.05 billion CZK Interest income in bank profits 176.74 billion CZK Net interest income 1.57 % of assets

Banking statistics for March 2026 Market forces in mortgage rates: the rise in market interest rates has only partially been reflected in mortgage rates. Strong competition in the market is helping. Banking statistics for February 2026 Loans are mainly driven by mortgages, which is why the CNB left the countercyclical reserve at 1.25%, but with the risk of an increase Banking statistics for January 2026

Loans and deposits

Loans and deposits

Credit dynamics 8.3 % yoy Deposit dynamics 5.6 % yoy Proportion of bad (non-performing) loans 1.5 % New loans in the economy 145.3 billion CZK New loans in the economy in detail 77 billion CZK Interest rates on new loans 4.5 %

Stronger wave of mortgage refixing, while the interest-rate shock eases. Higher inflation remains a risk. Banking statistics for March 2026 Market forces in mortgage rates: the rise in market interest rates has only partially been reflected in mortgage rates. Strong competition in the market is helping. Fiscal policy keeps all options open for CNB interest rate movements Is the unchanged CNB interest rate at 3.50% a sign of the coming bonanza or the calm before the storm?

CBA Hypomonitor

CBA Hypomonitor

Number of new mortgages granted without and with refinancing and increases 30 thousand; ytd Volume of newly granted mortgages without and with refinancing and increase 141.3 CZK billion; ytd Average interest rate on new mortgages 4.52 % Average size of a new mortgage 4.89 miles. CZK Illustrative average monthly mortgage payment 26 233 CZK Mortgage origination volumes for the full year 372 billion CZK

CBA Hypomonitor: April also rewrote mortgage highs with still low rate of 4.52% Stronger wave of mortgage refixing, while the interest-rate shock eases. Higher inflation remains a risk. CBA Hypomonitor: March continued with a temporary boom in mortgages, thanks to a lower rate of 4.43%. Market forces in mortgage rates: the rise in market interest rates has only partially been reflected in mortgage rates. Strong competition in the market is helping. CBA Hypomonitor: February continued with a temporary boom in mortgages, at a rate of 4.46%.

Real estate prices

Real estate prices

Development of real estate offer prices 12.9 % yoy Development of realised prices of older flats 16.0 % yoy Development of realised prices of flats in Prague, %yoy 11.3 % yoy Prices of new and new-build flats and number of transactions 9.6 % yoy Prices of older flats and number of transactions 15.7 % yoy Prices of flats and houses 11.3 % yoy Prices of new and new flats by region 137.2 thous. CZK per m2 Prices of older flats by regional cities 75.3 thous. CZK per m2 House prices by regional towns 6.16 (price per house in CZK million)

Strong pace of growth in supply prices of flats also at the beginning of 2026 Stronger household incomes outpaced house price growth for six quarters House prices up 12 percent last year, rental housing up 10 percent in some regions House prices have maintained 10% momentum, which is not the case for disposable income Higher house prices spark richer debate over central bank macroprudential policy than first appears

CBA Forecast

CBA forecast: gross domestic product 2.6 % yoy CBA forecast: consumer prices (inflation) 1.7 % yoy CBA forecast: average wage 5.8 % yoy CBA forecast: unemployment 4.6 % CBA forecast: CNB interest rate 3.50 % CBA forecast: exchange rate against the euro 24.1 CZK/euro

CBA Macroeconomic Forecast 1Q26 (Part 2): interview with economist Pavel Sobíšek CBA Macroeconomic Forecast 1Q26 (Part 1): interview with economist Jan Vejmělek MACROECONOMIC FORECAST OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC 1Q 26 CBA Macroeconomic Forecast 4Q25 (Part 2): interview with economist David Havrlant CBA Macroeconomic Forecast 4Q25 (Part 1): interview with economist Petr Gapek

CBA Forecast
CBA forecast: CNB interest rate

CBA forecast: CNB interest rate

3.50 %

forecast end 2026

3.50 %

forecast end 2027

CBA Commentary

February CBA Forecast: in this environment, the forecast consensus continues to assume that the CNB's key interest rate will remain stable at 3.50% over the entire forecast horizon due to persistent wage pressures, including fiscal easing, although half of the panel can imagine a 25bp fall in the interest rate over the next two years. \The May level of the CBR interest rate at 3.5% is consistent with the CBA's outlook for end-2026.

CBA forecast: CNB interest rate

% (average values, but forecast for the end of the period)

CBA Monitor

You can hide a data set by clicking on the data set name in the chart legend.

Source of primary data

CNB, CBA

Category

Forecast

Data frequency

annual

Note

This is the two-week repo rate. \The "Actual figures" are the full-year average and the "Actual ytd" is the average for the year to date, while the "CBA forecast" refers to the end of the period.
The dashed line "middle band of 25-75% forecasts" represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentile of all forecasts in the CBA consensus.

Related Charts

Average interest rate on new mortgages
CBA forecast: exchange rate against the euro

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Comments

Is the unchanged CNB interest rate at 3.50% a sign of the coming bonanza or the calm before the storm?

Is the unchanged CNB interest rate at 3.50% a sign of the coming bonanza or the calm before the storm?

18. 12. 2025

Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The central bank did not surprise by unanimously leaving interest rates unchanged, i.e. with the two-week repo rate at 3.50%, for the fifth meeting in a row after a 25bp cut in May. Although the Board did not change its view of the risks and uncertainties surrounding the CNB's November forecast, it did assess the risks to inflation as balanced, given the risks in financial markets and the removal of the renewable energy levy, following November's upside assessment.

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