Economics

Gross domestic product 2.2 % yoy Consumer price inflation (inflation) 1.9 % yoy Industrial production 1.5 % yoy Gross domestic product development 2.2 % yoy Wage dynamics 7.4 % yoy nominal Monthly consumer price inflation (inflation) 2.5 % yoy total Monthly economic activity 0.9 %yoy (03-2026) Unemployment 4.93 % (04-2026) Trust indicators -1.3 % yoy

The economy slowed in the first quarter, but its structure remains encouraging May sentiment cooled household purchase plans Stronger wave of mortgage refixing, while the interest-rate shock eases. Higher inflation remains a risk. Retail sales continued to gain momentum in March, together with construction, in contrast to weaker industrial performance The CNB's new outlook for higher rates "only" translated into hawkish communication

Banking sector

Banking sector assets 11 919.00 CZK billion Number of employees 38 187 Number of banks by size 43 (total) Bank profits in the economy 128.96 CZK billion Profitability of the banking sector 1.13 % profit on assets Capital adequacy and the role of profit in it 23.19 % Interest income and expense 45.05 billion CZK Interest income in bank profits 176.74 billion CZK Net interest income 1.57 % of assets

Banking statistics for March 2026 Market forces in mortgage rates: the rise in market interest rates has only partially been reflected in mortgage rates. Strong competition in the market is helping. Banking statistics for February 2026 Loans are mainly driven by mortgages, which is why the CNB left the countercyclical reserve at 1.25%, but with the risk of an increase Banking statistics for January 2026

Loans and deposits

Loans and deposits

Credit dynamics 8.6 % yoy Deposit dynamics 5.0 % yoy Proportion of bad (non-performing) loans 1.5 % New loans in the economy 138.2 billion CZK New loans in the economy in detail 66 billion CZK Interest rates on new loans 4.5 %

Stronger wave of mortgage refixing, while the interest-rate shock eases. Higher inflation remains a risk. Banking statistics for March 2026 Market forces in mortgage rates: the rise in market interest rates has only partially been reflected in mortgage rates. Strong competition in the market is helping. Fiscal policy keeps all options open for CNB interest rate movements Is the unchanged CNB interest rate at 3.50% a sign of the coming bonanza or the calm before the storm?

CBA Hypomonitor

CBA Hypomonitor

Number of new mortgages granted without and with refinancing and increases 30 thousand; ytd Volume of newly granted mortgages without and with refinancing and increase 141.3 CZK billion; ytd Average interest rate on new mortgages 4.52 % Average size of a new mortgage 4.89 miles. CZK Illustrative average monthly mortgage payment 26 233 CZK Mortgage origination volumes for the full year 372 billion CZK

CBA Hypomonitor: April also rewrote mortgage highs with still low rate of 4.52% Stronger wave of mortgage refixing, while the interest-rate shock eases. Higher inflation remains a risk. CBA Hypomonitor: March continued with a temporary boom in mortgages, thanks to a lower rate of 4.43%. Market forces in mortgage rates: the rise in market interest rates has only partially been reflected in mortgage rates. Strong competition in the market is helping. CBA Hypomonitor: February continued with a temporary boom in mortgages, at a rate of 4.46%.

Real estate prices

Real estate prices

Development of real estate offer prices 12.9 % yoy Development of realised prices of older flats 16.0 % yoy Development of realised prices of flats in Prague, %yoy 11.3 % yoy Prices of new and new-build flats and number of transactions 9.6 % yoy Prices of older flats and number of transactions 15.7 % yoy Prices of flats and houses 11.3 % yoy Prices of new and new flats by region 137.2 thous. CZK per m2 Prices of older flats by regional cities 75.3 thous. CZK per m2 House prices by regional towns 6.16 (price per house in CZK million)

Strong pace of growth in supply prices of flats also at the beginning of 2026 Stronger household incomes outpaced house price growth for six quarters House prices up 12 percent last year, rental housing up 10 percent in some regions House prices have maintained 10% momentum, which is not the case for disposable income Higher house prices spark richer debate over central bank macroprudential policy than first appears

CBA Forecast

CBA forecast: gross domestic product 2.0 % yoy CBA forecast: consumer prices (inflation) 2.5 % yoy CBA forecast: average wage 6.1 % yoy CBA forecast: unemployment 4.8 % CBA forecast: CNB interest rate 3.50 % CBA forecast: exchange rate against the euro 24.4 CZK/euro

CBA Macroeconomic Forecast 2Q26 (Part 2): interview with Helena Horská CBA Macroeconomic Forecast 2Q26 (Part 1): interview with economist Petr Gapek MACROECONOMIC FORECAST OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC 2Q 26 CBA Macroeconomic Forecast 1Q26 (Part 2): interview with economist Pavel Sobíšek CBA Macroeconomic Forecast 1Q26 (Part 1): interview with economist Jan Vejmělek

CBA Forecast
CBA forecast: exchange rate against the euro

CBA forecast: exchange rate against the euro

24.4 CZK/euro

forecast end 2026

24.2 CZK/euro

forecast end 2027

CBA Commentary

May CBA Forecast:We expect a slightly weaker koruna compared to the previous forecast. In addition, the higher expected ECB interest rate foreshadows the risk of a weaker koruna.
Forecast risk: the koruna has reached an average value of 24.34 against the euro in 2026 (with data until April) and almost matches the CBA Forecast average exchange rate value. Its interim value is almost in line with the CBA's forecast (24.4) for the end of the year.

CBA forecast: exchange rate against the euro

average value

CBA Monitor

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Source of primary data

CNB, CBA

Category

Forecast

Data frequency

annual

Note

"Actual" and "CBA forecast" represent the full-year average and "actual ytd" is the average for the year to date. \The dashed lines in the 'middle 25-75% forecast range' represent the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentile of all forecasts in the CBA consensus.

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CBA forecast: CNB interest rate

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Comments

CBA Macroeconomic Forecast 2Q26 (Part 2): interview with Helena Horská

25. 05. 2026

The domestic economy will grow by 2% this year. The CBA forecasting panel worsened the outlook due to the events in Hormuz. The forecast from the first quarter predicted growth of 2.6%. Consumer inflation should accelerate towards the upper limit of the inflation target at the end of this year.

CBA Macroeconomic Forecast 1Q26 (Part 2): interview with economist Pavel Sobíšek

Pavel Sobíšek 17. 02. 2026

The CBA's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.6% this year and to maintain the same pace in 2027. Inflation should slow to 1.7% this year and then accelerate to 2.3% next year. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

CBA Macroeconomic Forecast 1Q26 (Part 1): interview with economist Jan Vejmělek

Jan Vejmělek 12. 02. 2026

The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.6% this year and should maintain the same pace next year, according to the CBA forecasting panel. Inflation should slow to 1.7% on average in 2026 and accelerate slightly again to 2.3% in 2027. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC 1Q 26

Jaromír Šindel 11. 02. 2026

February 2026: Growth outlook steady at 2.6% with low price growth

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