A Boost to the Economy from New Loans

Commentary by the Czech Bar Association

The Czech Banking Association (ČBA) estimates that the volume of loans actually newly signed or increased (excluding refinancing and rate resets) to the corporate sector and households reached approximately 18.2% of quarterly GDP in July, which is less than the 19.3% of GDP estimated for the second quarter of 2026. Thus, during the first part of the third quarter of 2026, Czech banks (on the supply side) and businesses and households (on the demand side) continued to boost the credit impulse into the economy. For now, it appears to be on a continued upward trajectory toward 18.3% of GDP, which is 3.1 percentage points above the 15.1% of GDP recorded in 2025 and 8.4 percentage points than the recent low of 9.9% in 2024. For comparison: the pre-COVID average for 2014–2019 was 18% of GDP.
The year-over-year recovery in the credit impulse in 2026 (based on data through July) of 3.1 percentage points reflects new housing loans (+0.7 pp to 4.9% of GDP; vs. 1.7% of GDP in 2023 and 3.8% in the pre-COVID period), as well as year-over-year growth in new corporate loans by 2.1 p.p. to 10.9% of GDP (vs. 6.4% of GDP in 2023 and 12.2% before the pandemic). Consumer loans have so far reached 2% of GDP this year, representing a year-over-year increase of 0.2 percentage points (vs. 1.4% of GDP in 2023 and 1.5% before the pandemic).