New loans in the economy in detail

CBA Commentary

The CBA estimates that the volume of actual newly signed or increased loans (excluding refinancing and refixing) to the corporate sector and households reached around 17.2% of quarterly GDP during the first quarter of the new year, up from the 16.8% of GDP estimated in Q4 2025. Thus, during Q1 2026, Czech banks (on the supply side) and corporates and households (on the demand side) continued to revive the credit impulse to the economy. For now, it looks on its continued upward trajectory to 17.2% of GDP, 2pp above the 15.2% of GDP impulse in 2025 and 7.3pp above the recent low of 9.9% in 2024. By comparison, the pre-Covind average in 2014-2019 was 18% of GDP.
The 2pp y/y rebound in credit impulse in 2026 (so far with March data) reflects new housing loans (+1.2pp to 5.5% of GDP; vs. 1.7% of GDP in 2023 and 3.8% in the pre-Covid period), as well as 0.4pp y/y growth in new corporate loans to 9.1% of GDP (vs. 6.4% of GDP in 2023 and 12.2% pre-Covid). Consumer credit has so far this year reached 2.1% of GDP, up 0.3 pp y/y (vs. 1.4% of GDP in 2023 and 1.5% pre-covid).