The improved outlook reflected the positive surprise from stronger average wage growth in the second quarter, which had a significant impact on its outlook for future years. With little change in the price dynamics, we are counting on stronger real wage growth: 3.3% next year, following this year's 4.6% improvement (the cumulative improvement has been 1.7 pp in these years). The stronger purchasing power is reflected in a more robust outlook for household consumption, which can also benefit from a still high savings rate.
Source of primary data
CZSO, CBA
Note
"Actual" and "CBA forecast" represent the full-year average and "actual ytd" is the average for the year to date. Data unadjusted for working day differences and seasonal effects. The dashed line 'middle band of 25-75% of forecasts' represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentile of all forecasts in the CBA consensus.