CBA Forecast: Average Wage

7.1 % year-over-year
2026 Forecast
5.8 % year-over-year
2027 Forecast

Commentary by the Czech Bar Association

August ČBA Forecast: After growing by 6.6% in 2025, the average nominal wage is expected to accelerate to 7.1% this year and slow to 5.8% in 2027. Combined with lower inflation, this implies real wage growth of approximately 5.0% this year and 3.1% in 2027, which supports household consumption.
Forecast Risk: For 2027, the risk to nominal wage growth is skewed upward (median 5.8%, range 5.7–6.2%); if productivity fails to keep pace, higher wage costs could prolong core inflationary pressures.
Risk update based on new data: Revisions to first-quarter data reduced the year-over-year growth rate of nominal wages in the first half of the year to an average of 6.3%. Although this poses a risk of slower wage growth this year than the expected 7.1%, the sustained average quarter-over-quarter wage growth of around 1.6% remains above the 5.8% outlook for next year.

CBA Forecast: Average Wage

nominal and gross (full-year figures, % yoy)

CBA Monitor
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Source of Primary Data

Czech Statistical Office, Czech Banking Association

Category

Forecast

Data Frequency

annual

Note

"Actual values" and "ČBA forecast" represent the full-year average, and "actual YTD data" is the year-to-date average for the current year.
Data not adjusted for variations in the number of business days or seasonal effects.
The "mid-range of 25–75% of forecasts," marked by dashes, represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentiles of all forecasts in the ČBA consensus.

Related Charts

Wage Trends
Monthly Changes in Consumer Prices (Inflation)
CBA Forecast: Unemployment
CBA Forecast: Consumer Prices (Inflation)

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Comments

However, slower wage growth maintained strong momentum in the second quarter as well
Jaromír Šindel 03. 09. 2026

Wage growth accelerated to 6.4% year-over-year in the second quarter; however, following a significant revision of first-quarter data, the pace is much more moderate than the original figures suggested or the central bank had expected. Real wages, however, continue to grow briskly, and the persistently strong quarter-over-quarter growth in nominal wages—at 1.6%—maintains the risk of inflation. For the CNB, the wage data thus represent a less hawkish signal than before, but not a reason to change the current monetary policy stance, even in light of the planned stronger wage growth in the public sector.

19. 08. 2026

August 2026: The Czech economy continues to grow steadily, but core inflation pressures will keep interest rates higher

25. 05. 2026

The domestic economy will grow by 2% this year. The CBA forecasting panel worsened the outlook due to the events in Hormuz. The forecast from the first quarter predicted growth of 2.6%. Consumer inflation should accelerate towards the upper limit of the inflation target at the end of this year.

20. 05. 2026

May 2026: Economic growth slowing to 2% with risks on many fronts, 2.4% growth next year

Pavel Sobíšek 17. 02. 2026

The CBA's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.6% this year and to maintain the same pace in 2027. Inflation should slow to 1.7% this year and then accelerate to 2.3% next year. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jan Vejmělek 12. 02. 2026

The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.6% this year and should maintain the same pace next year, according to the CBA forecasting panel. Inflation should slow to 1.7% on average in 2026 and accelerate slightly again to 2.3% in 2027. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jaromír Šindel 11. 02. 2026

February 2026: Growth outlook steady at 2.6% with low price growth