CBA forecast: average wage

6.1 % yoy
forecast 2025
5.3 % yoy
forecast 2026

CBA Commentary

May CBA Forecast:Stronger wage growth in late 2025 is reflected in a stronger outlook for nominal wage growth with 6.1% this year, but slower than the 7.2% in 2025. Faster consumer price growth should slow real wage growth to 3.5% this year from 4.6% last year (and from 4% in the February forecast), followed by 2.5% growth in 2027.
Forecast Risk: Nominal average wage growth during 2026 (with Q1 data) of 8.1% y/y is above the CBA Forecast. However, part of the positive surprise is dampened by the negative revision to average wage growth in 2025, which also applies to the interpretation of stronger real wage growth earlier this year.

CBA forecast: average wage

Nominal and gross (annual values, % yoy)

CBA Monitor
You can hide a data set by clicking on the data set name in the chart legend.

Source of primary data

CZSO, CBA

Category

Forecast

Data frequency

annual

Note

"Actual" and "CBA forecast" represent the full-year average and "actual ytd" is the average for the year to date.
Data unadjusted for working day differences and seasonal effects.
The dashed line 'middle band of 25-75% of forecasts' represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentile of all forecasts in the CBA consensus.

Related Charts

Wage dynamics
Monthly Changes in Consumer Prices (Inflation)
CBA forecast: unemployment
CBA forecast: consumer prices (inflation)

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Comments

25. 05. 2026

The domestic economy will grow by 2% this year. The CBA forecasting panel worsened the outlook due to the events in Hormuz. The forecast from the first quarter predicted growth of 2.6%. Consumer inflation should accelerate towards the upper limit of the inflation target at the end of this year.

20. 05. 2026

May 2026: Economic growth slowing to 2% with risks on many fronts, 2.4% growth next year

Pavel Sobíšek 17. 02. 2026

The CBA's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.6% this year and to maintain the same pace in 2027. Inflation should slow to 1.7% this year and then accelerate to 2.3% next year. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jan Vejmělek 12. 02. 2026

The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.6% this year and should maintain the same pace next year, according to the CBA forecasting panel. Inflation should slow to 1.7% on average in 2026 and accelerate slightly again to 2.3% in 2027. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jaromír Šindel 11. 02. 2026

February 2026: Growth outlook steady at 2.6% with low price growth