Development of real estate offer prices
16.9
% yoy
Current value
17.7
% yoy
Last quarter's value
Development of real estate offer prices
(% yoy)
Comments
House prices have maintained 10% momentum, which is not the case for disposable income
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: Even the third quarter of 2025 did not bring a significant recovery in household disposable income. Despite this, the household savings rate has been abnormally high for almost six years. In Q3, it was 18.4%. Weaker quarter-on-quarter growth in disposable income has not kept pace with house prices for six quarters in a row. On a year-over-year basis, we are comparing 3.4% growth in disposable income vs. a 10.8% increase in home purchase prices including land (HPI).
Higher house prices spark richer debate over central bank macroprudential policy than first appears
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: According to the Czech Statistical Office, realised prices of older flats in the Czech Republic rose by 3.7% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, which exceeds income growth for the seventh quarter already and maintains the too brisk annual pace of property prices at around 16%. Higher property prices are also making their way into the CNB's macroprudential capital policy settings, with discussion over the (arguably unscary) possible introduction of a sectoral systemic buffer, as well as less intuitive discussions over the role of investment activity by non-financial corporates in setting the countercyclical capital buffer.
Slight recovery in disposable income was enough for stronger consumption and higher savings, but not for more expensive real estate
Comment by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: The recovery in disposable income in Q2 was still dampened by fiscal policy, so it remained weaker compared to the increase in wages and property prices. Nevertheless, households managed to increase both consumption and their savings.
Realised house prices maintained a strong pace in the second quarter
Economic commentary by Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA: I estimate overall growth in realised house prices of 4.2% quarter-on-quarter, which has outpaced wage growth for the sixth quarter in a row.
Decline in transaction prices of flats in the second quarter is related to transactions rather than to a fall in prices
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA
Growth of new-build and offer prices of flats remains strong in the second quarter
Economic commentary by Jaromir Šindel, Chief Economist of the CBA