New loans in the economy

138.2 billion CZK
Current value
18.2 % OF GDP
% OF GDP

CBA Commentary

The CBA estimates that the volume of actual newly signed or increased loans (excluding refinancing and refixing) to the corporate sector and households reached approximately 18.8% of quarterly GDP in April, up from the 17.3% of GDP estimated in Q1 2026. Thus, in less than two quarters of 2026, Czech banks (on the supply side) and corporates and households (on the demand side) continued to revive the credit impulse to the economy. For now, it looks on its continued upward trajectory to 18.1% of GDP, 2.9 p.p. above the 15.2% of GDP impulse in 2025 and 8.2 p.p. above the recent low of 9.9% in 2024. By comparison, the pre-Covind average in 2014-2019 was 18% of GDP.
The 2.9pp y/y rebound in credit impulse in 2026 (so far with April data) reflects new housing loans (+1.6pp to 5.8% of GDP; vs. 1.7% of GDP in 2023 and 3.8% in the pre-Covid period), as well as 0.8pp y/y growth in new corporate loans to 9.6% of GDP (vs. 6.4% of GDP in 2023 and 12.2% pre-Covid). Consumer credit has so far this year reached 2.1% of GDP, up 0.4 pp y-o-y (vs. 1.4% of GDP in 2023 and 1.5% pre-covid).

New loans in the economy

CZK billion

CBA Monitor
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Source of primary data

CNB ARAD

Category

Loans and deposits

Data frequency

Monthly

Note

These are net new loans, i.e. genuinely new loans (excluding refinancing and other arrangements) including increases (including increases for refinancing and other arrangements).
The data in the chart are unadjusted for calendar and seasonal effects, but the commentary reflects the CBA's estimate of seasonally adjusted data.
Total non-financial corporations = CZK + EUR loans.
Total households = consumption, housing, other (incl. non-residential real estate).

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Comments

CNB tightens banks' capital buffer. Responds to faster credit growth and new risks, including fiscal

The countercyclical capital buffer should rise to 1.5% from July 2027, which will increase banks' total capital requirements to around 17% next year, in response to continued growth in lending to households and firms and lower perceived risks in the banking sector. Again, we are also seeing stronger wage growth outpacing productivity. In the case of rising investment credit, however, this is a dilemma for macroprudential policy. In addition to the financial cycle, the results of stress tests, including concerns about the interconnectedness of the banking and government sectors, are likely to have factored into the decision. It leaves mortgage rules unchanged.

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Banking statistics for March 2025

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