CBA Forecast: Unemployment

4.8 %
2025 Forecast
4.7 %
2026 Forecast

Commentary by the Czech Bar Association

The labor market remains relatively tight, even though the unemployment rate has been gradually rising and has come in worse than expected compared to our forecast in recent quarters. The average unemployment rate is expected to rise from 3.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026, with a slight decline to 4.5% in 2027. In our view, this seemingly mixed picture of the labor market primarily reflects the culmination of structural changes in the labor market and a convergence toward the neutral rate of unemployment from historically very low levels, rather than a cyclical slowdown in the economy.

CBA Forecast: Unemployment

registered share (%)

CBA Monitor
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Source of primary data

Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, Czech Banking Association

Category

Forecast

Data Frequency

annual

Note

The unemployment rate calculated by the Labor Office compares the number of registered, available job seekers aged 15–64 to the total population in that age group, which distinguishes it from the traditional unemployment rate (such as the sample-based rate from the Czech Statistical Office), which is typically expressed relative to the economically active age cohort—that is, the sum of the employed and the unemployed.
“Actual values” and “ČBA forecast” represent the full-year average, and “actual data YTD” is the year-to-date average for the current year.
Data adjusted for variations in the number of working days and seasonal effects.
The “mid-range of 25–75% of forecasts,” marked by dashes, represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentiles of all forecasts in the ČBA consensus.

Related Charts

Unemployment
CBA forecast: average wage

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Comments

25. 05. 2026

The domestic economy will grow by 2% this year. The CBA forecasting panel worsened the outlook due to the events in Hormuz. The forecast from the first quarter predicted growth of 2.6%. Consumer inflation should accelerate towards the upper limit of the inflation target at the end of this year.

20. 05. 2026

May 2026: Economic growth slowing to 2% with risks on many fronts, 2.4% growth next year

Pavel Sobíšek 17. 02. 2026

The CBA's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.6% this year and to maintain the same pace in 2027. Inflation should slow to 1.7% this year and then accelerate to 2.3% next year. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jan Vejmělek 12. 02. 2026

The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.6% this year and should maintain the same pace next year, according to the CBA forecasting panel. Inflation should slow to 1.7% on average in 2026 and accelerate slightly again to 2.3% in 2027. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jaromír Šindel 11. 02. 2026

February 2026: Growth outlook steady at 2.6% with low price growth