CBA Forecast: Unemployment

4.9 %
2026 Forecast
4.8 %
2027 Forecast

Commentary by the Czech Bar Association

August ČBA Forecast: The average registered unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.4% in 2025 to 4.9% this year and then decline slightly to 4.8% in 2027. The labor market is thus loosening only gradually, and persistently low frictional unemployment, combined with an accelerating economy, is preventing a more significant cooling of the labor market and inflationary wage growth.
Forecast Risk: For 2026, the 4.9–5.0% range indicates a slight risk of higher unemployment, while in 2027, the outlook around the median of 4.8% is more balanced within the 4.7–4.9% range.
Risk update based on new data: The August increase in seasonally adjusted registered unemployment to 5.1%, combined with this year’s 5% average to date, represents a downside risk of higher unemployment relative to our outlook.

CBA Forecast: Unemployment

registered share (%)

CBA Monitor
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Source of Primary Data

Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, Czech Banking Association

Category

Forecast

Data Frequency

annual

Note

The unemployment rate calculated by the Labor Office compares the number of registered, available job seekers aged 15–64 to the total population in this age group, which distinguishes it from the traditional unemployment rate (such as the sample rate from the Czech Statistical Office), which is typically expressed relative to the economically active age cohort—that is, the sum of the employed and the unemployed.
“Actual values” and “ČBA forecast” represent the full-year average, and “actual ytd data” is the year-to-date average for the current year.
Data adjusted for the impact of varying numbers of working days and seasonal effects.
The “mid-range of 25–75% of forecasts,” marked by dashes, represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentiles of all forecasts in the ČBA consensus.

Related Charts

Unemployment
CBA Forecast: Average Wage

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Comments

19. 08. 2026

August 2026: The Czech economy continues to grow steadily, but core inflation pressures will keep interest rates higher

25. 05. 2026

The domestic economy will grow by 2% this year. The CBA forecasting panel worsened the outlook due to the events in Hormuz. The forecast from the first quarter predicted growth of 2.6%. Consumer inflation should accelerate towards the upper limit of the inflation target at the end of this year.

20. 05. 2026

May 2026: Economic growth slowing to 2% with risks on many fronts, 2.4% growth next year

Pavel Sobíšek 17. 02. 2026

The CBA's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.6% this year and to maintain the same pace in 2027. Inflation should slow to 1.7% this year and then accelerate to 2.3% next year. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jan Vejmělek 12. 02. 2026

The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.6% this year and should maintain the same pace next year, according to the CBA forecasting panel. Inflation should slow to 1.7% on average in 2026 and accelerate slightly again to 2.3% in 2027. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jaromír Šindel 11. 02. 2026

February 2026: Growth outlook steady at 2.6% with low price growth