CBA forecast: unemployment

4.8 %
forecast 2025
4.7 %
forecast 2026

CBA Commentary

May CBA Forecast: The labour market should remain relatively stable. The average registered unemployment rate should reach 4.8% this year and fall slightly to 4.7% in 2027. Thus, despite weaker economic growth, the forecast does not foresee a significant deterioration in the labour market, but rather a gradual easing.
Risk to the forecast.

CBA forecast: unemployment

registered share (%)

CBA Monitor
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Source of primary data

MLSA, CBA

Category

Forecast

Data frequency

annual

Note

The unemployment rate from the Labour Office measures the number of registered jobseekers aged 15-64 relative to the total population aged 15-64, which is different from the conventional unemployment rate (e.g. the CSO sample rate), which is usually expressed relative to the economically active age cohort, i.e. the sum of the employed and unemployed. \The "Actual" and "CBA forecast" represent the full-year average and the "Actual ytd" is the year-to-date average.
Data adjusted for working day differences and seasonal effects.
The dashed line "middle band of 25-75% forecasts" represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentile of all forecasts in the CBA consensus.

Related Charts

Unemployment
CBA forecast: average wage

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Comments

25. 05. 2026

The domestic economy will grow by 2% this year. The CBA forecasting panel worsened the outlook due to the events in Hormuz. The forecast from the first quarter predicted growth of 2.6%. Consumer inflation should accelerate towards the upper limit of the inflation target at the end of this year.

20. 05. 2026

May 2026: Economic growth slowing to 2% with risks on many fronts, 2.4% growth next year

Pavel Sobíšek 17. 02. 2026

The CBA's forecast panel expects the domestic economy to grow by 2.6% this year and to maintain the same pace in 2027. Inflation should slow to 1.7% this year and then accelerate to 2.3% next year. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jan Vejmělek 12. 02. 2026

The Czech economy is expected to grow by 2.6% this year and should maintain the same pace next year, according to the CBA forecasting panel. Inflation should slow to 1.7% on average in 2026 and accelerate slightly again to 2.3% in 2027. However, core inflation remains elevated and represents a key upside risk to inflation, especially in services prices.

Jaromír Šindel 11. 02. 2026

February 2026: Growth outlook steady at 2.6% with low price growth