Commentary by the Czech Bar Association
August ČBA Forecast: The average registered unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.4% in 2025 to 4.9% this year and then decline slightly to 4.8% in 2027. The labor market is thus easing only gradually, and persistently low voluntary unemployment, combined with an accelerating economy, is preventing a more significant cooling of the labor market and inflationary wage growth.
Risks to the forecast: For 2026, the 4.9–5.0% range indicates a slight risk of higher unemployment, while in 2027, the outlook around the median of 4.8% is more balanced within the 4.7–4.9% range.
Risk update based on new data: The August increase in seasonally adjusted registered unemployment to 5.1%, combined with this year’s 5% average to date, represents a downside risk of higher unemployment relative to our outlook.
CBA Forecast: Unemployment
registered share (%)
Source of Primary Data
Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, Czech Banking AssociationCategory
ForecastData Frequency
annualNote
The unemployment rate calculated by the Labor Office compares the number of registered, available job seekers aged 15–64 to the total population in that age group, which distinguishes it from the traditional unemployment rate (such as the sample-based rate from the Czech Statistical Office), which is typically expressed relative to the economically active age cohort—that is, the sum of the employed and the unemployed.“Actual values” and “ČBA forecast” represent the full-year average, and “actual data ytd” is the year-to-date average for the current year.
Data adjusted for variations in the number of working days and seasonal effects.
The “middle range of 25–75% of forecasts,” marked by dashes, represents the middle half between the 25th and 75th percentiles of all forecasts in the ČBA consensus.
Related Charts
UnemploymentCBA Forecast: Average Wage